064
ACUS11 KWNS 182025
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182024
PAZ000-NYZ000-OHZ000-182200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1323
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0324 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Areas affected...portions of far northwestern Pennsylvania into far
southwestern New York

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 182024Z - 182200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A localized concentration of damaging gusts is possible
over the next few hours along the PA/NY border region. Given the
spatially and temporally confined nature of the damaging gust
threat, a WW issuance remains unlikely.

DISCUSSION...An organized cluster of thunderstorms with a history of
damaging gusts (and at least one measured 50+ kt gust) has developed
over far northeastern OH. This cluster is slowly propagating
northeast as convective outflow spreads to the southeast,
overturning the ambient airmass in the process. Weak deep-layer
west-southwesterly flow pivoting around the Mid-Atlantic anticyclone
suggests that the ongoing cluster, should it persist, will continue
moving east-northeast. As such, the northeast flank of the ongoing
cluster may not gust out and undercut convection for at least a few
more hours. In this time-frame, 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE will support
stronger storm cores capable of producing a focused corridor locally
damaging gusts. However, the damaging gusts should be contained
within a small area, and convection may become outflow dominant and
undercut sooner than expected. A WW issuance remains unlikely in the
short-term, but convective trends will continue to be monitored for
the possibility of greater upscale growth and subsequent damaging
wind potential.

..Squitieri/Gleason.. 06/18/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON   41608068 42008008 42387943 42487866 42177834 41667850
            41387912 41257994 41278051 41338069 41608068