323
ACUS11 KWNS 241755
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241755
MDZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-241900-

Mesoscale Discussion 2101
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Areas affected...eastern West Virginia south to northeastern
Tennessee/western North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 241755Z - 241900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Local risk for severe weather is evident in the short
term, where WW issuance may be needed.

DISCUSSION...While persistent/dense cloud cover is apparent in
visible satellite imagery east of the mountains in Virginia, heating
is ongoing across eastern West Virginia and areas south, where
clouds are more sparse.  This has resulted in a narrow axis of
moderate destabilization (1000 to 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE).  The
destabilizing environment has supported a zone of convective
development -- including a small/organized band of intense storms
moving across portions of eastern West Virginia.

Given the cloud cover/low-level stability across the mountains into
the eastern West Virginia/western Maryland Panhandles and adjacent
western Virginia, these storms should begin to weaken in the next
hour or so as they shift eastward.  Farther south however, a broader
zone of destabilization may support a longer-duration risk for
strong storms this afternoon.  However, risk for severe weather
should remain localized, and at this time it appears that WW
issuance may not be required.

..Goss/Guyer.. 09/24/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...GSP...MRX...

LAT...LON   39527966 39107939 37538021 35758132 35348300 36618309
            38018131 39158047 39618014 39527966