Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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Issued by NWS
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955
ACUS11 KWNS 141618
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141617
PAZ000-141815-
Mesoscale Discussion 1258
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024
Areas affected...Western/Central PA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 141617Z - 141815Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Some additional strengthening of the ongoing thunderstorms
is possible over the next hour or two, with some new development
probable as well. Isolated hail and/or damaging gusts are possible,
and trends will be monitored for a possible watch.
DISCUSSION...Ongoing thunderstorm cluster across western PA has
shown a gradual strengthening trend over the past hour or so as it
continues eastward at around 30 kt. Widespread cloud cover exists
downstream across central PA, which has tempered heating thus far.
Even so, some heating and moistening is likely ahead of this cluster
over the next few hours, contributing to the potential for modest
destabilization and some additional strengthening of the storms
within this cluster. New development is also possible across the
southern edge of this cluster, from southeast into south-central PA.
Overall storm strength should be mitigated by the minimal buoyancy,
but moderate westerly flow aloft could still support some organized
storm structures capable of hail and/or damaging gusts. Uncertainty
regarding severe coverage limits higher watch probabilities, but
convective trends will be monitored closely.
..Mosier/Gleason.. 06/14/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...
LAT...LON 40768031 41737859 41897776 41787700 41207695 40017783
39747898 39938034 40768031