917
ACUS11 KWNS 141835
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141834
NYZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-142030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1261
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Areas affected...Eastern PA...NJ...NY Hudson Valley...Western
MA..Western CT

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 141834Z - 142030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Ongoing cluster across central Pennsylvania is expected to
persist, with additional development possible across the region this
afternoon. Damaging gust and/or hail are possible with the strongest
storms, and trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...A convective cluster continues to move eastward across
central PA at around 30 kt. Clouds persist downstream of this
cluster from eastern PA into NJ and the Hudson Valley, but some
thinning has been noted across eastern PA, particularly southeast PA
where temperatures are now in the low to mid 80s. There has been a
corresponding increase in buoyancy across southeast PA, with some
indications that the cluster may begin to progress a bit more
southeastward into this region. Separate from the PA cluster,
additional strengthening of the more cellular development across the
Hudson Valley has also been noted as the large-scale forcing for
ascent spreads into the region.

With buoyancy and shear both expected to remain modest, the overall
severe coverage remains uncertain. The cluster in central PA
recently produced a 40 kt gust, and given that the environment
downstream is similar to its current environment and significant
strengthening appears unlikely, this may indicate the gust strength
to expected downstream. Shear is slightly stronger farther north, so
there may be a greater chance for severe hail from the Hudson Valley
eastward into western MA/CT. Convective trends will be monitored
across the entire region to determine if coverage will be sufficient
for watch issuance.

..Mosier/Gleason.. 06/14/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   40337893 41137725 42097521 42537296 41677264 39807469
            39707812 40337893