033
ACUS11 KWNS 132104
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132104
KSZ000-NEZ000-132200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1250
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0404 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Areas affected...Central Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 132104Z - 132200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is expected across
central KS over the next 1-2 hours. Damaging wind gusts near 65-80
mph and large hail exceeding 1.5" in diameter may accompany a few of
the thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION...The most recent surface objective mesoanalyis and
visible satellite imagery indicate CINH is eroding across central KS
this afternoon along a prefrontal surface trough extending east to
west. Boundary layer moisture pooling along this feature, along with
diurnal heating leading to temperatures in the triple digits, is
yielding ~3500 J/kg of MLCAPE amidst very steep mid-level lapse
rates. Convective initiation is expected to occur very soon with the
deepening cumulus across central KS, but may be delayed further
east-northeast where a broader region of MLCINH exists. The initial
thunderstorms that develop and remain more discrete will have an
opportunity to produce large hail, but considering only modest deep
layer effective shear is present, the main severe threat should be
damaging wind gusts through early this evening. Increasing
thunderstorm coverage over the next couple of hours may require the
need for a WW.

..Barnes/Gleason.. 06/13/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   38619611 38419681 37809775 37080052 38100039 38520057
            39160062 39399996 39449859 39909765 40349698 40449644
            40069623 39589618 38869570 38619611