037
ACUS11 KWNS 172006
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172006
KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-172130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1305
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0306 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Areas affected...parts of eastern Colorado and western Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 172006Z - 172130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered high-based convection that
has recently evolved may persist with a threat for isolated damaging
gusts and/or hail this afternoon. However, convective evolution and
the spatial extent of any severe risk is uncertain.

DISCUSSION...As of 20 UTC, regional radar and satellite data showed
high-based convection has evolved across southeastern CO in the last
hour. Likely driven by strong diurnal heating and the approach of a
subtle shortwave trough, and modest ascent near a dryline will
likely allow for continued convective development. Although
high-based (with surface dewpoints only in the 40s-50s F) around
1000 J/kg of MLCAPE (increasing with eastward extent) may be
sufficient to support a few stronger updrafts, especially if storms
move into deeper moisture farther north and east. Model soundings
show very deep surface mixed layers with LCL heights in excess of
2000 m. Given the steep low-level lapse rates, any sustained storms
are likely to develop strong evaporative downdrafts with damaging
gust potential. Isolated hail may also be possible with any of the
more sustained updrafts given effective shear around 25-30 kt.

While there remains some uncertainty on storm longevity with the
marginal surface moisture, at least a few stronger updrafts may
persist this afternoon, and potentially move into areas with greater
buoyancy farther east. Some risk for damaging winds and hail is
possible with any sustained storms as indicated by recent HRRR runs.
Given this, convective trends will continue to be monitored though a
WW appears unlikely at this time.

..Lyons/Halbert/Gleason.. 06/17/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...

LAT...LON   37920139 37170154 36970180 36930207 36910264 36990298
            37130326 37610350 38350323 38790278 39380250 39720199
            39580152 39230134 38710134 38050135 37920139