Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 170756
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170755
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-170930-
Mesoscale Discussion 1297
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024
Areas affected...southern MN into northern IA and west-central WI
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 170755Z - 170930Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and strong/severe wind gusts 50-65 mph
possible through early morning. A severe thunderstorm watch is being
considered.
DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms has become better organized
near the southwest MN/northwest IA border over the past hour. This
activity is occurring closer to a surface boundary and on the nose
of a 35 kt southwesterly low-level jet. Sufficient instability,
steep midlevel lapse rates, and effective shear magnitudes greater
than 35 kt will support strong to severe thunderstorms into early
morning. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed soon to
address this increasing severe risk.
..Leitman/Guyer.. 06/17/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...
LAT...LON 42969651 43779631 44399567 44579518 45239266 45069112
44449065 43799085 43289164 42839330 42609495 42619622
42969651