837
ACUS11 KWNS 181754
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181754
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-182000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1319
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Areas affected...eastern NE...western IA...and far north-central KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

Valid 181754Z - 182000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected along
and ahead of a cold front moving across the Mid-Missouri Valley.
While large hail and a tornado or two are possible, scattered gusts
of 55-70 mph should be the primary threat. A severe thunderstorm
watch will be likely by 1930Z.

DISCUSSION...A swelling Cu field with incipient Cb development is
underway along an east-southeast moving cold front that arcs from
far eastern SD through south-central NE. 17Z SPC mesoanalysis
indicates MLCIN is becoming negligible along the NE portion of the
front with MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg amid low 70s surface dew points
ahead of it. Deep-layer wind profiles are largely aligned to the
frontal orientation, with stronger mid to upper flow also lagging
west of it. Still, enough shear in conjunction with the moderately
large MLCAPE should prove sufficient for multicell clustering as
convection spreads towards/across the Mid-MO Valley. Some
enlargement to the low-level hodograph should support transient
mesovortices and embedded supercells. A threat for a tornado or two
in addition to large hail will be possible, but scattered wind gusts
from 55-70 mph should be the overarching hazard into early evening.

..Grams/Gleason.. 06/18/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON   43409582 43369418 42119421 40779538 39499751 39519892
            39729936 40429861 42279717 43339655 43409582