703
ACUS11 KWNS 261633
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261632
PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-261900-

Mesoscale Discussion 1426
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Areas affected...parts of northern Ohio into much of central
Pennsylvania and northward towards the 42nd parallel/New York border

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 261632Z - 261900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Storms will likely increase within a developing frontal
zone from northern Ohio into Pennsylvania. Scattered damaging gusts
may eventually materialize,

DISCUSSION...Surface map shows a diffuse frontal zone over northern
IN/OH and extending toward the NY/PA border where the theta-e
gradient is more pronounced. Storms are forming along the deeper
portion of the front over IN/OH, despite substantial clouds/limited
heating. GPS sensors indicate up to 1.75" PWAT in that area which is
aiding destabilization.

Farther east, stronger heating is noted over far northeast OH into
much of PA and NY, with a clear CU field south of the NY/PA border.
This area will continue to heat in advance of increasing development
upstream.

Large-scale lift will continue to increase along the front as a
shortwave trough approaches from the west. As such, a gradual
increase in storm coverage and strength is expected mainly after
18Z, with scattered damaging gusts most likely as deep-layer mean
winds increase.

..Jewell.. 06/26/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON   40867688 40377770 40078035 40258244 40718333 41308350
            41718323 42297977 42407901 42167690 41747638 40867688