566
ACUS11 KWNS 160800
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160800
NDZ000-SDZ000-161000-

Mesoscale Discussion 2069
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Areas affected...Northeast SD...Southern/Central ND

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 160800Z - 161000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Threat for isolated hail and/or strong gusts will continue
from northeast South Dakota into central North Dakota for the next
few hours. Limited coverage and magnitude will preclude the need for
a watch.

DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms are ongoing across northwest SD
and adjacent far southwest ND, supported by warm-air advection
within the localized warm conveyor associated with the mesoscale
convective vortex currently over far northwest SD. These
thunderstorms are forecast to continue north-northeastward over the
next few hours while gradually weakening in response to decreasing
warm-air advection. Even so, the environment downstream across
south-central ND appears favorable for evaporatively enhanced
downbursts and the potential for some strong gusts.

Farther north, a west-to-east oriented band of thunderstorms
recently developed in response to persistent warm-air advection near
the terminus of the low-level jet that extends across the Plains.
Recent radar imagery has shown that the previously more cellular
storms may be transitioning into a more clustered mode, with some
more easterly motion noted as well. Low-level stability will persist
downstream, but enough elevated buoyancy is expected to allow for
thunderstorm persistence. Consequently, the developing linear
cluster will likely continue east-southeastward with an attendant
risk for isolated hail. A strong gust or two may be able to reach
the surface as well.

..Mosier/Edwards.. 09/16/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON   45300399 46450319 47720207 48300017 48079831 46729969
            44880093 44820309 45300399