958
ACUS11 KWNS 171935
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171934
MNZ000-IAZ000-172130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1303
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Areas affected...Northwest/North-Central
IA...Southwest/South-Central MN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 171934Z - 172130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Ongoing convective line may strengthen as it moves
eastward into more of south-central MN and north-central IA.
Convective trends will be monitored closely to determine if a watch
is needed.

DISCUSSION...An elevated but organized convective line continues to
progress eastward across southwest MN/northwest IA at around 35 to
40 kt. The intensity of this line has been relatively steady over
the past hour or so. New development has also been noted along the
southern flank of this line. Recent surface analysis places a warm
front from east-central NE northeastward across northern IA and into
southwest MN, demarcated well by the 82 deg F isotherm. Northward
progression of this warm front combined with the predominantly
eastward motion of the convective line may result in the line
trending towards becoming more surface based over the next hour or
two. The airmass downstream continues to destabilize, with the
general expectation that minimal convective inhibition will remain
ahead of the line as it moves into south-central MN and
north-central IA. This could result in intensification of the line,
particularly if the line continues to build southward and increases
the potential for interaction with the warm front.

This scenario would likely merit watch issuance given the presence
of strong buoyancy and vertical shear supportive of severe
thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards. There is moderate
forecast confidence in this scenario, but there is also some chance
the line trends more northeastward into an airmass with less
buoyancy and no interaction with the warm front. Severe
thunderstorms would be unlikely in that scenario. Given the equal
chances between either scenario, convective trends will be monitored
closely and a watch may be needed if updrafts within the line begin
to intensify.

..Mosier/Gleason.. 06/17/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

LAT...LON   42779623 43469618 43819604 44219570 44309513 44379388
            44239321 43869291 43369276 42829323 42609480 42779623