616
ACUS11 KWNS 182225
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182225
OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-190030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1326
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0525 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Areas affected...Parts of the OK/TX Panhandles

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 182225Z - 190030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms are possible by early evening.

DISCUSSION...Convection continues to backbuild late this afternoon
along a cold front across southwest KS, with increasing cumulus
noted into parts of the central OK Panhandle. With time, deep
convection could develop into the OK and northern TX Panhandles,
within a very warm, well-mixed, and moderate to strongly unstable
environment. Deep-layer shear is rather marginal across the region
(generally 20-30 kt), but a few stronger multicells and perhaps a
marginal supercell could develop with time, with a threat of hail
and severe gusts. A brief landspout will also be possible near the
front/dryline intersection across the central OK Panhandle.

Farther south, uncertainty increases regarding the coverage of storm
development into early evening across parts of the central/southern
TX Panhandle. However, a subtle southern-stream shortwave trough
could aid in development of a couple stronger storms capable of hail
and isolated severe gusts.

Watch issuance is possible if observational trends begin to support
the potential for multiple severe storms across the region into this
evening.

..Dean/Edwards.. 06/18/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON   35650281 36910194 36920076 36530062 35910072 34850110
            34460149 34410174 34330315 35650281