996
ACUS11 KWNS 172104
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172104
KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-172300-

Mesoscale Discussion 2080
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0404 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Areas affected...Southeast Colorado into eastern New Mexico

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 674...

Valid 172104Z - 172300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 674
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across WW 674 with an
increasing wind threat emerging across southeast Colorado and
predominantly a hail threat across east/northeast New Mexico.

DISCUSSION...Large scale ascent associated with the main upper wave
continues to overspread the central Rockies with an uptick in
convection noted across south-central CO over the past half hour. A
combination of orographic ascent and deep-layer shear oriented along
the terrain/initiation zone have favored a linear storm mode with
pockets of enhanced low-level velocity noted from the KPUX radar.
Downstream from this developing line, MLCAPE continues to increase
to around 1000 J/kg in conjunction with strengthening deep-layer
shear as the mid-level jet overspreads the region. Consequently,
further intensification of this line appears probable with a
corresponding increase in severe wind potential downstream across
southeast/east-central CO.

Further south across eastern NM, more discrete storm mode has
supported a few supercells with notable MRMS hail signatures. Weaker
forcing for ascent and 30-45 knots of effective bulk shear should
continue to favor discrete/semi-discrete cells with a continued risk
for large hail for the next few hours. The eastward extent of the
risk remains somewhat nebulous as buoyancy decreases into the TX
Panhandle due to somewhat shallower mid-level lapse rates; however,
convective trends will continue to be monitored.

..Moore.. 09/17/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON   37900229 36100294 34800325 34230345 33850386 33670417
            33600450 33600470 33730486 34010508 34220519 34550521
            35660506 36580479 37480471 38120491 38430499 38710490
            39550247 39370203 38990185 38500198 37900229