790
ACUS11 KWNS 151843
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151842
NEZ000-COZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-152045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1268
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Areas affected...northeastern Colorado...southeastern Wyoming...and
the Nebraska Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 151842Z - 152045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...High-based storm development will continue -- initially
over the higher terrain but spreading eastward with time.  A few
strong gusts are possible, but isolated nature of this risk suggests
that WW issuance will likely not be required.

DISCUSSION...Daytime heating across the central High Plains region
is supporting modest destabilization, and initiation of high-based
convection -- most notably from southeastern Wyoming southward into
the central Colorado Front Range.  The convection is developing
above a deep mixed layer, where dewpoints are generally now observed
in the 40s and 50s across the area.

Flow aloft remains generally weak over the central High Plains, and
CAPE limited, suggesting that storms should remain largely
disorganized this afternoon.  However, given potential for
evaporative cooling in the sub-cloud layer, a few enhanced gusts
capable of producing wind damage will be locally possible across the
area into this evening.

..Goss/Gleason.. 06/15/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   42880404 43000309 42570231 41610193 40650224 40050498
            40450555 41910502 42650447 42880404