354
ACUS11 KWNS 161919
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161919
UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-162115-

Mesoscale Discussion 2073
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Areas affected...portions of northeastern Nevada...northwestern
Utah...and far southern Idaho

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 161919Z - 162115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few severe gusts are possible across portions of
northeastern Nevada, northwestern Utah, and far southern Idaho this
afternoon. A watch is not currently anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed across portions of
northeastern Nevada to the east of an expansive upper-level closed
low centered over central California. Despite seasonably strong
mid-level flow across the region (40-50 kts of 500 mb flow),
deep-layer shear is not particularly impressive, with approximately
30 kts of effective bulk shear. Additionally, some lingering cloud
cover has resulted in slow surface destabilization across portions
of the region. In spite of this, however, there are some areas of 9
C/km or greater low-level lapse rates, per mesoanalysis and
short-term RAP forecast soundings. This may result in a threat for
severe wind gusts across the region this afternoon. Some uncertainty
exists with respect to the northward extend of the threat due to the
aforementioned cloud cover across portions of southern Idaho and
northwestern Utah. Regardless, some multicell clustering is expected
with time as storms move to the north-northeast.

..Supinie/Gleason.. 09/16/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SLC...PIH...VEF...BOI...LKN...

LAT...LON   38551378 38301443 38321543 38811623 39661675 41011665
            41661624 42111581 42331501 42041387 41491341 40201319
            38951345 38551378