872
ACUS11 KWNS 162322
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162322
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-170045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1292
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0622 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Areas affected...Southwest/central NE into northeast CO and
northwest KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 162322Z - 170045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this evening.

DISCUSSION...Convective initiation is underway just southwest of
McCook, NE, in the vicinity of a nearly stationary front draped from
northeast CO into south-central/northeast NE. Strong buoyancy is in
place within the rather hot and well-mixed environment along/south
of the front, along with sufficient effective shear (generally 30-35
kt) for some storm organization. Storm coverage may remain rather
isolated in the short term in the absence of stronger large-scale
ascent, but an isolated supercell or two could form near the front
into the early evening, with a threat of large hail and localized
severe gusts.

Watch issuance in the short term is uncertain, but remains possible
if the threat for multiple severe storms appears imminent. Later
this evening, a general increase in elevated storm coverage
(including the potential for hail) is expected north of the front as
a low-level jet intensifies, with watch issuance becoming possible
across a larger portion of the region.

..Dean/Smith.. 06/16/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...

LAT...LON   39710011 39490128 39490239 39920248 40400135 40820036
            41489862 41599824 41189783 40859796 40369875 39979944
            39710011