744
FXUS64 KMEG 230448
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1148 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 901 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Skies are partly cloudy across the Mid-South this evening with
temperatures ranging from the mid 60s to mid 70s. An area of
showers and thunderstorms continue to move across portions of
north Mississippi. Additional thunderstorms are expected to move
into western sections of the Mid-South early Thursday morning.
Have made some adjustments to PoPs for the overnight hours.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 359 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

An unsettled period of weather will continue across the Mid-South
tonight through next Tuesday. This will bring a potential for
showers and thunderstorms each day across the Mid-South. Some of
these thunderstorms have the potential to become strong to severe
each day through at least Sunday night. Drier weather will begin
to return by next Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 359 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

An active afternoon across the Mid-South as a moderate to strong
instability combined with 40-50 kts shear, and favorable upper-
level divergence to produce severe thunderstorms and heavy
rainfall across the Mid-South. Latest surface analysis places a
surface low near Duluth, MN with a cold front extending south into
Indiana, the Missouri Bootheel, and back into Western Arkansas and
the Red River Valley. As of 3 PM CDT, temperatures are in the
upper 70s to lower 80s even where convective activity has occurred
over the past 2 to 3 hours.

Short-term models including the latest CAMs indicate the potential
for strong to severe thunderstorms to continue across portions of
the Mid-South, mainly for areas in West Tennessee near the
Tennessee River and most of north Mississippi except for areas
along and east of a line from Tutwiler to Aberdeen, Ms. Otherwise,
there may be a bit of a minimum in convective coverage this
evening as the MCS departs.

Subtle shortwave troughs embedded in nearly zonal flow aloft will
move across the Lower Mississippi Valley into the upcoming
Memorial Day weekend. Moderate to strong instability combined
with 0-6 km Bulk Shear values between 30-40 kts suggest the
potential for strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday especially
during peak heating and again during the day on Friday. Damaging
winds and large hail will remain the primary severe weather
threats along with a potential for heavy rainfall.

Long-term model trends suggest the potential for a better threat
of severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into Sunday night as a
stronger mid-level trough moves through the region. High pressure
will bring a gradual end to rain chances on Tuesday.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Mainly VFR conditions will persist through the overnight hours.
SHRAs and TSRAs may develop near JBR and MEM around daybreak and
spread east through late morning to MKL and TUP. Confidence on
coverage and timing is low as Hi-res guidance has a lot of spread
between models. Nonetheless, stayed close to hi-res ensemble
guidance to draft the TAFs. By late afternoon, skies should clear
as convection lifts out of the area. Winds will remain from the
south and southwest through much of the period.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...AC3