Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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552 FXUS64 KMEG 170237 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 937 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 934 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Skies are mostly clear across the Mid-South this evening with temperatures in the 80s. All of the showers and thunderstorms that were in the region earlier this evening are gone. Dry weather and warm temperatures are expected overnight with lows Monday morning in the low to mid 70s. Will update forecast to remove evening wording. ARS && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 340 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms will return to the Mid-South on Monday and Tuesday as several upper level disturbances move across the region. Dry and hot conditions will return midweek and persist into the weekend as upper level high pressure builds into the Mid-South. Expect above normal highs in the mid to upper 90s with lows in the 70s. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 310 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 A hot day across the Mid-South at this hour. Temperatures are running 5 to 7 degrees above normal with readings in the mid to upper 90s. The exception is over extreme northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel, where thunderstorms have been occurring for the past couple of hours and cooled into the mid 80s. Heat indices peaked at 105F for several locations this afternoon, but have since mixed back down just below the 105F threshold. Will continue the heat advisory for another hour or so and reevaluate, as only two locations are currently at 105F or higher. The latest GOES-East Water Vapor Imagery reveals a large ridge of high pressure stretching from east Texas northeast into the Ohio River Valley with weak troughing extending from Central Plains up into the Great Lakes region. The heat will take a backseat starting tomorrow as scattered showers and thunderstorms return to the region. Several perturbations will rotate clockwise around the upper level ridge and into the Mid-South Monday through late Tuesday. The first wave is expected to move into the region Monday morning with the highest shower and thunderstorm coverage coinciding with peak heating. A few lingering showers and storms may continue into the overnight hours. Convective coverage will remain between 30 and 50 PoPs on Tuesday. Thereafter, the aforementioned ridge of high pressure will retrograde back west and build into the Lower Mississippi Valley. This will translate to hot and dry conditions across the region through the early part of the weekend. Some weakening of the ridge may occur as early as Friday with mainly diurnally-driven isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. AC3 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 635 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Isolated SHRA/TSRA will dissipate over the next 1-2 hours, leaving VFR and light southeasterly winds for the remainder of the night. With the upper ridge further off to the east and deeper moisture through the column on Monday, expect to see more wind gusts and a bump in SHRA/TSRA coverage Monday afternoon. PWB && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3 AVIATION...PWB