Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
395 FXUS64 KMEG 160154 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 854 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 826 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Another wet night across the Midsouth. Rain should be most widespread along and west of the Mississippi River for the next several hours, but a weak shortwave and surface trough will shift into Middle Tennessee and Alabama toward sunrise and likely result in additional development in west Tennessee and north Mississippi. We should see more significant clearing tomorrow evening area wide as a persistent upper level low sinks south into southeast Arkansas. Dry conditions are expected on Tuesday and through the remainder of the work week. Temperatures will trend warmer but should remain below the 90 degree mark. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 228 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Showers will continue across portions of the Mid-South through Monday, slowly exiting the area from northeast to southwest. Dry conditions will prevail Tuesday through at least Friday. High temperatures will begin to increase tomorrow before reaching the mid 80s by Tuesday and remaining there through the remainder of the week. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 228 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Funnel of moisture continues across the Mid-South with a SE to NW axis of precipitation currently depicted on radar. There have been a few, heavier pockets of rain so far today, but haven`t seen any significant issues as a result luckily. Some pockets of surface instability do exist, however, thunderstorm activity has been confined to north of the area and will likely remain that way through tonight and tomorrow. Moisture axis will slowly begin to shift southward beginning overnight through tomorrow, with rain exiting the area finally by tomorrow evening. An additional inch of rain is expected generally over north MS, with amounts closer to a few tenths for locations near the TN River, and somewhere unbeaten elsewhere. The one noticeable difference tomorrow will be our temperatures, with temps climbing back into the 80s for much of the area. Skies will begin to clear from NE to SW, so some locations north of I-40 in west TN could climb to the mid 80s. Weak upper-level ridge will develop across the ArkLaTex region by Tuesday, slowly drifting towards the Mid-South near the end of the week. This will finally usher out the remnant tropical moisture and bring back a warmer and drier weather pattern to the area. Highs will generally be in the 80s with overnight lows in the 60s, which is near normal for the area this time of year. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 636 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 An upper low will continue to churn over the Mid-South bringing IFR conditions to MEM and MVFR conditions to JBR/MKL through around sunrise. -SHRA/BR will also impact all terminals through this same period. VFR conditions will slowly begin to filter into the airspace as shower development exits the Mid-South. Northeast winds at around 6-12 kts will remain through the TAF period. AEH && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS AVIATION...AEH