422
FXUS64 KMEG 211931
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
231 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Unseasonably warm temperatures are forecast across the Midsouth
on Sunday, as a strong upper level ridge prevails over the lower
Mississippi River Valley. This ridge will weaken on Monday,
suppressed by an upper level low pressure system extending from
the central plains into the mid-Mississippi River Valley. Showers
and thunderstorms will develop along an accompanying cold front as
it enters the Midsouth Monday afternoon and evening. A few severe
thunderstorms will be possible north of Interstate 40, with a
Marginal Risk for damaging winds and large hail.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Upper level ridging will be a little stronger over the Midsouth
on Sunday, as heights briefly amplify in advance of a positive-
tilted trough lifting out of the central Rockies. By Monday
afternoon, this trough will provide sufficient height falls for
scattered showers and thunderstorms along and north of I-40. A
weak surface cold front will provide some focus for convection,
but uncertainty remains with respect to warm sector clouds and
instability. 0-6km bulk shear around 35 knots will aid storm
organization potential. Midlevel lapse rates appear supportive
for marginally-severe hail, but damaging winds will be primary
threat if surface-based instability potential is realized.

The weak cold front will stall across the Midsouth on Tuesday,
becoming parallel with the west-southwesterly flow aloft. Medium
range guidance consensus drops a deepening closed low from the
Missouri River Valley into the western Ozarks on Wednesday.
Tropical moisture may become entrained in the strengthening
south-southwesterly flow ahead of this low, depending on
developments in the Gulf of Mexico. Clouds and low end rain
chances will continue over the Midsouth through mid to late week,
with seasonal daytime temperatures. Late week rain chances may
edge upward in future forecasts, depending on the evolution of
the closed low over the southern plains and potential tropical
system development in the Gulf of Mexico.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

VFR. Patchy fog is expected overnight at MKL. TUP could also see
some patchy fog over this same period, though confidence was not
high enough to include in TAF. VCTS will continue at JBR through
the afternoon as a decaying MCS continues moving over NE AR/the MO
Bootheel. Convection may impact MEM later this afternoon, though
confidence was not high enough to prevail in TAF. Predominately
south/southwest winds sub 10 kts will remain across all terminals.

AEH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...AEH