558
FXUS64 KMEG 200423
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1123 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 928 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Tranquil weather continued across the Midsouth this evening.
Scattered mid and high clouds were decreasing in coverage, but
slowly. At the surface, a high pressure axis extended from the
lower Ohio River Valley through the Cumberland Plateau, resulting
in light easterly winds over the Midsouth. 9PM temps were in the
upper 70s to lower 80s. Current forecast remains on track.

PWB

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

A warm and dry pattern will prevail over the next couple of days
as a ridge of high pressure builds over the region. High
temperatures will reach the mid 90s by Friday and near 100 degrees
on Sunday. Heat advisory criteria is possible across the Mid-
South starting on Sunday. A backdoor cold front will move toward
the Mid-South late Sunday into Monday, resulting in rain chances
returning to the region through the middle part of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Mid-level water vapor analysis depicts that the Mid-South remains
wedged between a mid to upper level ridge that is centered over
the Mid-Atlantic and a large area of troughing engulfing the
western United States. Over the next couple of days the ridge is
expected to build back to the west. As this occurs, skies should
remain mostly clear and high temperatures will increase. Daily
high temperatures across the Mid-South will be in the mid 90s by
Friday and could reach the upper 90s to near 100 degrees by
Saturday and Sunday. Despite these impressively high temperature
values, heat index values look to remain below advisory criteria
through Saturday as dry conditions persist across the region.

As the ridge continues to build west, eventually becoming
centered over the southwestern U.S., large scale troughing is
forecast over the northeastern and Mid-Atlantic states. It appears
that around this time, a northwest mid/upper level flow regime
begins to take hold over the Mid-South. A back door cold front,
associated with this area of troughing, will advance toward the
Mid-South late Sunday into Monday. In response to this feature,
southerly flow will advect dewpoints in the low to mid 70s into
the region. With temperatures in the mid to upper 90s and
dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, a heat advisory appears possible
starting on Sunday as heat index values approach 105 degrees.
Daily rain chances will also increase starting around the early
part of next week as mean precipitable water values from the GEFS
and EPS depict values that are above the climatological mean for
this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Scattered to broken alto-cumulus clouds from a tropical storm
will be the only concern this TAF cycle. Clouds are high enough to
alleviate any aviation concerns. High pressure will slide in late
in the period and may cause patchy fog in the northeast portion
of the airspace.

DNM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JPR
AVIATION...DNM