854
FXUS64 KMEG 111529
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1029 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1028 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

A beautiful weather day is on tap for our Tuesday with highs in
the upper 70s to mid 80s. Current temperatures are in the low to
upper 70s with a thin cirrus deck skirting across the Mid-South.
This will sadly be our last day with below normal temperatures as
we currently sit under northwest flow, on the south side of a
1017 mb high pressure system. Tomorrow, this high pressure will
build over the Tennessee/Kentucky border creating a bit warmer day
with highs in the mid 80s before reaching into the 90s by
Thursday.

The current forecast package is on track.

AEH

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Dry and warm conditions are expected through the end of the work
week. This weekend looks to heat up in the mid to upper 90s with
triple digit heat indices. Rain chances will increase early next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

One more day of below normal temperatures is on tap today as
northeasterly flow continues on the south side of a 1018 mb surface
high centered over the MO/IL/KY tri-point. Expect afternoon highs
hovering in the low 80s today; quite pleasant by June standards
in the Mid-South. The aforementioned surface high looks to shift
over the Lower MS River Valley over the course of the next few
days, which will gradually increase temperatures and humidity
through the end of the work week. We should tip the scales into
the low 90s by Friday.

Moving into the weekend, strong midlevel ridging looks to set up
over the southeast CONUS. This will allow temperatures to continue
climbing into the mid 90s and maybe even upper 90s by Sunday. In
addition, a surface boundary will act as a moisture trap for much
of the Deep South this weekend, keeping the cooler, drier air
just to the north across the Upper MS River Valley. NBM
probabilities of temperatures > 90 degrees are maxed out
everywhere on Sunday afternoon with even a few low probability
pixels of T > 100 degrees. This weekend will likely be the first
instance of triple digit heat index of the year, though it`s not
looking like heat headlines will be necessary quite yet.

Midlevel ridging finally breaks down early next week, allowing
temperatures to fall back into the low 90s. Long range models are
starting to pick up on a stark plume of Gulf moisture being
funneled up the Mississippi River Valley starting on Monday
afternoon. This system does not look to have tropical
characteristics, but it does indicate a very wet start to next
week for the central Gulf Coast. PoPs are generally in the 30-40%
range Monday and Tuesday to account for model discrepancy, but
expect shower and thunderstorm activity to be on the rise early
next week.

CAD

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

VFR. Light mainly NE winds.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...SJM