397
FXUS64 KMEG 100908
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
408 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Cooler and drier air will filter in behind a cold front through
Tuesday. Afternoon highs will be in the 80s and lows tonight in
the upper 50s to lower 60s. A building ridge of high pressure will
bring a continuation of dry weather into the first half of next
weekend with temperatures rising into the lower to middle 90s.
Increasing humidity will result in a return of shower and
thunderstorm chances by Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

GOES-16 Water Vapor satellite trends this morning shows an upper-
level centered over eastern Quebec with an upper-level ridge axis
centered over the Rockies. Latest surface analysis places a cold
front from central Georgia back through the I-20 corridor from
Mississippi into northeast Texas. Regional WSR-88D radar trends
indicate a few isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
over portions of central Arkansas into portions of north and
central Mississippi. Winds are relatively light behind this front
and the combination of nearly calm winds and rainfall in the past
24 hours has resulted in the development of locally dense fog and
low stratus across northwest Tennessee near the Tennessee River.
As of 3 AM CDT, temperatures range from the upper 50s to lower 60s
north of I-40, and middle 60s to lower 70s south.

The aforementioned low stratus and fog should begin to improve
this morning as temperatures warm into the upper 60s to lower
70s. A Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect through 9 AM CDT and
will be monitored for possible expansion before expiration if
short-term trends warrant any adjustments. Cooler and slightly
less humid air will continue to filter in behind the front over
the next 48 hours as high pressure builds across the Lower
Mississippi Valley. Highs this afternoon and Tuesday will be
mainly in the upper 70s to lower 80s with lows tonight falling
back into the 50s.

Mid to long range operational and ensemble model trends continue
to show an upper-level ridge building across the Lower Mississippi
Valley into late this week. 00Z NAEFS indicates temperatures be
about 1 to 2 standard deviations from normal across the region,
resulting in temperatures in the lower to middle 90s. These hot
temperatures combined with slowly increasing low level moisture
may result in heat index values between 100-103 degrees towards
the latter half of the weekend. A weak back door cold front will
try to drop into the area Friday night into Saturday with confidence
remaining too low to introduce rain chances into the forecast at
this time. Shower and thunderstorm chances will be possible late
in the weekend as tropical moisture from the Gulf moves up into
the region.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1118 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

While VFR conditions are expected to prevail at most terminals
through the TAF period, guidance has hinted at the potential for
fog development at MKL starting later tonight between 09-12z. Near
surface winds are forecast to remain out of the north to
northeast between 5-10 knots, with the potential for gusts
between 15-20 knots in the afternoon at all sites except TUP.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for TNZ002>004-
     021-022.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...JPR