188
FXUS64 KMEG 100211
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
911 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 909 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Updated to cancel the remainder of the Severe thunderstorm Watch
#401.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the entire region
tonight as a cold front moves through the Mid-South. A few strong
to severe thunderstorms are possible south of the cold front.
Large hail, damaging winds, and localized heavy rainfall are the
main weather threats. High pressure will build into the region
behind the front bringing cooler and drier air for Monday through
Wednesday. An upper level ridge will build into the region with
high temperatures in the low to mid 90s expected by Thursday and
continuing into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Skies are cloudy across extreme northern sections of the Mid-South
with mostly sunny weather over the remainder of the region.
Temperatures continue to vary quite a bit with readings in the
upper 60s over northeast Arkansas to the lower 90s over portions
of north Mississippi. The area of showers and thunderstorms that
was moving across portions of west Tennessee this morning have
exited the region. A second area of showers and thunderstorms are
moving into portions of northeast Arkansas and the Missouri
bootheel. A cold front remains across portions of west Tennessee
and east Arkansas.

The cold front will continue to move south tonight. Additional
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop late this
afternoon and tonight ahead of the front. Strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible tonight south of the front.
Damaging winds, large hail and locally heavy rainfall are all
possible with these thunderstorms. High pressure will start to
build into the region late tonight with thunderstorms confined to
extreme southern sections of the Mid-South overnight. Temperatures
will turn cooler behind the front with lows Monday morning in the
upper 50s to mid 60s.

High pressure will remain over the region for Monday through
Wednesday. This will result in dry weather and below normal
temperatures during this period. Highs on Monday will be in the
upper 70s to mid 80s with highs in the mid 80s across the entire
region by Wednesday.

By Thursday, an upper level ridge starts to slide east across the
southern Plains and into the southeast U.S. This will result in a
period of dry weather and above normal temperatures. Highs on
Thursday and Saturday will be in the low to mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 647 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

TSRA chances look to remain in the vicinity of the MEM terminal
and should directly affect the TUP terminal through around 03z.
Shower activity should gradually taper off with variable MVFR
CIGS at some sites persisting through at least 06z.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...JPR