Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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581 FXUS64 KMEG 082008 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 308 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Showers and thunderstorms will move into the northern half of the Mid-South tonight as a cold front approaches the region from the north. A few thunderstorms could be strong or possibly severe late this evening mainly north of I-40. Large hail, damaging winds, and localized heavy rainfall are possible. As the cold front moves through the region on Sunday, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the front from Sunday morning through Monday morning. Cooler and drier air will build into the area by Monday night. Temperatures will warm back to the upper 80s to lower 90s by Thursday as an upper-level ridge builds across the region. Along with the warmer weather, scattered afternoon thunderstorms are possible. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Friday) Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Skies are partly cloudy across much of the Mid-South this afternoon with temperatures in the upper 70s to around 90 degrees. An area of showers and isolated thunderstorms is moving across portions of west Tennessee. A cold front will move south out of northern Missouri tonight and will be just north of the Mid-South by Sunday morning. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of this front tonight with some of this activity moving across northern sections of the Mid-South, mainly north of I-40. Some of the thunderstorms could be strong or possibly severe tonight. Damaging winds, large hail, and locally heavy rainfall would be the main threats. Temperatures will be seasonably warm tonight with lows Sunday morning in the upper 60s to mid 70s. As the cold front moves south through the Mid-South on Sunday, more scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of it. Temperatures will turn cooler behind the front with highs from the upper 70s to lower 90s. As the front moves into north Mississippi Sunday night, scattered thunderstorms will be confined to the southern half of the region. Temperatures will remain cooler behind the front with lows Monday morning in the upper 50s to upper 60s. As the cold front reaches central Mississippi Monday morning, thunderstorms could be found across extreme southern sections of the Mid-South. Cooler and drier air will move into the region on Monday with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Dry weather with below normal temperatures is expected for Monday night through Wednesday morning. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday. An upper level ridge will start to build into the Mid-South starting Thursday and continuing into Friday. This will bring warmer air into the region with above normal temperatures expected for both days. Along with the warmer weather, scattered afternoon thunderstorms will be possible both days. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1254 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Primary concern remains timing and track of upstream SHRA/TSRA. TSRA will likely form over MO late this afternoon, drifting ESE. This activity will likely remain north of MEM this evening, but may get close if convective outflow is pushed further south than anticipated. For the 18Z TAFs, kept a PROB30 for TS at JBR and MKL. TSRA chances remain non-zero after 09Z, but below mentionable thresholds at this time. Next chance for TSRA is expected near and south of MEM Sunday afternoon. This convection will likely form along a residual outflow boundary around the time or shortly after it passes through MEM. TUP will likely be the main terminal impacted Sunday afternoon. PWB && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...ARS AVIATION...PWB