Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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255 FXUS64 KMEG 080943 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 443 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 430 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 A complex of showers and thunderstorms is anticipated to remain mostly north of the area today over southern Missouri and western Kentucky as an upper-level ridge remains in place across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Shower and thunderstorm chances will begin to increase tonight into Sunday as a cold front drops into the region. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible later this evening into early Sunday morning mainly north of I-40. Large hail, damaging winds, and localized heavy rainfall are possible. Cooler and drier air will build into the area for early next week with temperatures increasing back to the upper 80s to lower 90s for the latter half of next week as an upper-level ridge builds across the region. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Friday) Issued at 430 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 GOES Water Vapor satellite trends this morning show a couple of upper-level lows over Canada. One upper-level low is centered over western Quebec while the other one is over central Manitoba. Meanwhile, an MCS is located over western Missouri on the northern periphery of an upper-level ridge axis early this morning. Regional WSR-88D radar trends show the nearest showers and thunderstorms over southwest Missouri. As of 4 AM CDT, temperatures across the Mid-South range from around 60 degrees to the middle 60s. Short-term models including CAMs indicate showers and thunderstorms associated with the MCS will be more prevalent just upstream of the Mid-South over southern Missouri and western Kentucky today. 00Z KLZK and morning LAPS soundings show a substantial amount of dry air present across the area as of discussion time. Nonetheless, a potential exists for a few showers or perhaps a thunderstorm across the northern edge of the CWA today where the ridge might be slightly weaker. Otherwise, dry conditions should prevail across most of the Mid-South with highs in the middle 80s to around 90 degrees. Shower and thunderstorm chances will gradually begin to increase later this evening as modest mid-level height falls gradually begin to spread across portions of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Moderate to strong surface based instability, steep mid-level lapse rates, and 0-6 km bulk shear values increasing to 30-40 kts support the potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds as the primary severe weather threats. Soundings indicate a potential for storms to become elevated with time later tonight which may mitigate the wind threat late tonight. NAEFS indicates mean precipitable water values will be around the 90th percentile as precipitable water values increase to around 2 inches. This would suggest a potential for heavy rainfall across portions of the area. However, the HREF indicates the greatest potential for rainfall amounts greater than 2 inches may remain just north of the Mid-South over southern Missouri and western Kentucky. As a result, we held off on issuing a Flash Flood Watch at this time but will continue to monitor short-term trends for reconsideration if conditions warrant any changes. Mid/Long range models indicate shortwave ridging will build in across the region early next week with the potential for a weak mid-level trough to move across the Mississippi Valley Tuesday into Wednesday. Operational and ensemble model trends suggest this shortwave will be substantially weaker and confidence remains low with overall convective chances in the long-term forecast at this time as mid-level heights build into next week. Temperatures will start out cool for next week with highs gradually returning towards the upper 80s to lower 90s towards the latter half of the week. CJC && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Prevailing VFR conds are expected through the TAF PD with mid/high clouds now approaching fm the N/W via recent sat imgry. Mid to high cloud cover wl cont to incrs thru the overnight hours. Slight chance of precip is expected to return to the FA on Sat mrng, which is mentioned in select TEMPO groups. Clouds should decrease late in the TAF period over Nrn sites, with little in the way of clouds noted over Srn sites. Winds will be light overnight, becoming gusty out of the SW at 10 to 20 kts on Saturday. /72/ && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...72