410
FXUS64 KMEG 120238
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
938 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 930 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Surface high pressure across the Middle Mississippi River Valley
and a trough aloft will keep us mild and dry tomorrow. A dry
airmass and light winds will result in efficient radiational
cooling tonight. Morning lows will range from the middle 50s to
near 60 degrees across most of the Midsouth. The trough will shift
east late tomorrow resulting in warming conditions Thursday and
Friday. The weekend looks hot and dry. Heat indices may exceed 100
degrees with high temperatures in the middle to upper 90s. Cooler
temperatures and a chance of rain return early next week.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Warm and dry conditions will prevail through the end of the workweek
as high pressure remains over the area. As we head into the weekend,
temperatures look to skyrocket into the upper 90s with some areas
possibly reaching into the triple digits. Our next chance of
rainfall won`t be until early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Monday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Current temperatures are in the mid 70s to lower 80s with a thin
cirrus and a thin stratus deck lifting northeast over the Mid-South.
Light northeast surface winds remain over the area at this hour
creating a beautiful weather day across the area as we sit under
northwest flow aloft and just south of a 1017 mb high pressure
system. This high pressure system will continue to build east,
centering over the Tennessee and Kentucky border late this
evening. High pressure movement will result in increased
temperatures tomorrow with highs in the mid 80s with some areas
over northern Mississippi reaching into the upper 80s.

By Thursday, mid-level ridging and a loosened pressure gradient will
begin dominating the weather creating a pretty warm end to our
workweek. Temperatures will start climbing into the lower 90s
under clear skies as a large dry air column moves in place over
the area with dew points in the 60s. Moving into Friday
temperatures will continue to increase into the mid to upper 90s
as mid-level ridging remains over the Mid-South.

As we head into the weekend, a 591 mb high pressure looks to
build east over the Lower Mississippi Valley resulting in yet
another increase in daily high temperatures. Saturday, a few areas
over northern Mississippi could see temperatures in the triple
digits. Sunday will be our hottest day with many areas across the
Mid-South having the capability of seeing temperatures in the
triple digits as a backdoor cold front and attendant warm front
look to dip down over the Mid-South Saturday night and into Sunday
morning. Heat headlines may need to be in place both Saturday and
Sunday as many areas will likely see heat indices >100 degrees.

Come Monday, relief from the aforementioned ridge looks to
finally move over the region as a meridional moisture plume looks
to move over the Middle Mississippi Valley, enhanced by ample Gulf
moisture. Temperatures early next workweek will be in the upper
80s to low 90s. 20-30% PoPs were carried Monday and Tuesday to
account for this moisture as we are still around a week out.
Bottom line, be on the lookout for shower and thunderstorm
activity to ramp up early next week.

AEH

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

No major aviation concern across the Mid-South with VFR prevailing
through the TAF period.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...JPR