Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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280 FXUS64 KMEG 190437 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1137 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 827 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 A fairly calm night across the Mid-South at this hour. A few light returns were depicted on KNQA along and west of the Mississippi River where dewpoints are still in the mid to upper 70s. This is due to the poleward stream of Gulf Air that is seen on GOES Water Vapor Imagery. A few light showers are possible tomorrow mainly north of I-40 and west of the Mississippi River as a high pressure system sinks south. The high pressure movement will kick off a warming trend, but dewpoints look to remain fairly mild under easterly flow. Forecast is in good shape, only minor adjustments were made. DNM && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 335 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 A significant warming trend will begin Wednesday and persist through this weekend. Temperatures will soar into the mid to upper 90s each day with heat index values approaching or exceeding 100 F by this weekend. Rain chances will remain low over the next 5 days. Chances for rain and unsettled weather may arrive early next week as high pressure weakens across the region. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Monday) Issued at 335 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 A rather cool day across the Mid-South at this hour. Temperatures are in the low to mid 80s areawide with a thick blanket of mid and upper level clouds. The latest KNQA radar sweep reveals very light rain showers along and west of the Mississippi River. GOES-East Water Vapor Imagery shows a poleward stream of tropical moisture surging up the Mississippi River Valley with a 595dam ridge over the Northeastern U.S. Rain will taper off this evening as upper level heights build in across the Lower Mississippi Valley. A significant warming trend will begin on Wednesday and persist through this weekend. The aforementioned ridge, currently over the Northeastern U.S., will deamplify and retrograde back west into the Lower Mississippi Valley through the end of the week. This will translate to hot and dry conditions each day. Temperatures will climb 5 to 7 degrees above normal with readings in the mid to upper 90s by this weekend. With dry easterly flow at the surface, heat index values should remain around 100 F through late week. Low level moisture will return on Sunday and could trigger a heat advisory for portions of the region as heat index values climb to 105F or greater. Our first chance of rain and cooler temperatures may arrive Sunday as a shortwave drops down across the Ohio River Valley and pushes a cold front into the region. The Mid-South looks to remain in northwest flow aloft early next week, which could translate to an MCS pattern or a series of weak frontal passages. AC3 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1134 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 The western lobe of an upper level ridge centered over the mid- Atlantic seaboard will spread into the Midsouth through the next 30 hours. This will limit SHRA/TSRA chances and bring light easterly surface winds for the MEM nighttime arrival/departure pushes. PWB && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3 AVIATION...PWB