811
FXUS64 KMEG 160438 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1138 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 905 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Skies are mostly clear across the Mid-South this evening with
temperatures ranging from the mid 70s to mid 80s. Some isolated
showers and thunderstorms developed late this afternoon across
portions of the Mid-South, but all of this activity has gone away.
This will leave a dry and warm night across the region with lows
Sunday morning in the low to mid 70s. Current forecast looks good
with no update needed.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Hot and humid conditions will persist through Sunday with heat
indices reaching the triple degree mark areawide. Cooler
temperatures along with chances for showers and thunderstorms will
return for Monday and Tuesday as Gulf moisture streams into the
region. Dry and hot conditions will return late week with
temperatures approaching the mid 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Our first bout of summer heat is well underway across the Mid-
South at this hour. Temperatures are in the low to mid 90s with
heat indices around 100F areawide. The latest GOES-East Water
Vapor Imagery reveals strong subsidence and abundantly dry air
aloft across the Lower Mississippi Valley. The latest RAP analysis
depicts a 590dam ridge centered over west and middle Tennessee
with a shortwave trough over the Central Plains. Sunday will be
nearly a carbon copy of today, albeit a degree or two hotter. A
heat advisory may be needed for our extreme southwest counties
Sunday, but current guidance suggests that heat indices will only
peak around 103 or 104 F.

The aforementioned ridge is expected to slowly drift east through
early next week. As it does, deep Gulf moisture will advect into
the Lower Mississippi Valley. Weak perturbations will rotate
clockwise around the ridge and into the Mid-South Sunday night
through Tuesday night. Although, it will not be a total washout,
model consensus suggests isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible each day. Tuesday will be the
coolest day of the period, with highs peaking only in the mid 80s
due to heavy cloud cover and scattered showers and storms.

The ridge of high pressure will strengthen and retrograde back
west into the Lower Mississippi Valley by midweek. This will
bring the return of hot and dry conditions to the region.
Temperatures will remain 4 to 6 degrees above normal with highs
in the mid 90s and lows in the low to mid 70s. The positive news
is that reduced humidity will keep heat indices below 100F through
late week. Long term guidance suggests that the ridge may weaken
by next weekend and allow a cold front to drop down into the
Mississippi Valley.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

No significant changes planned for the 06Z TAFs. Low level
pressure gradient will be little tighter Sunday afternoon,
supporting winds near 10KT at all but TUP.

Isolated SHRA/TSRA expected Sunday afternoon, mainly east of MEM.
Chances remain below 10 percent, due to a warm capping layer
around FL100.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...PWB