Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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047 FXUS64 KMEG 011950 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 250 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 243 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across much of the Mid-South through this evening as an upper level disturbance moves across the region. Thereafter, mainly rainfree and humid conditions will persist on Sunday. Unsettled weather will return on Monday and persist through mid week as several upper level disturbances rotate through the region. A cold front will push into the Mid-South late Wednesday night through Thursday with widespread showers and thunderstorms possible. Active weather will return next weekend as more upper level disturbances move through. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Friday) Issued at 243 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 The latest surface analysis places a 1011mb low near St. Louis with a quasi-stationary front extending southeast into west Tennessee and northern Alabama. Aloft, a broad shortwave was analyzed over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to develop and slowly move east across much of the Mid-South at this hour. This activity will decrease through the evening hours as the main shortwave begins to lift out and pivot eastward. Skies are expected to clear along and west of the Mississippi River late tonight with the potential of dense fog developing overnight. Further east, clouds may linger on the backside of the trough and limit widespread fog from forming. Sunday now appears to be a mostly dry day, albeit a bit humid. Upper level heights will build slightly in wake of the exiting shortwave. Weak zonal flow will persist across the region through midweek and allow at least a couple of weak waves to translate through. Active weather will return on Monday as a vort max moves across the Southern Plains and into the Mid-South. With the combination of a moderately unstable airmass in place and weak deep layer shear, a few strong storms are possible. Gusty winds and heavy rainfall are the main threats. Weak troughing will remain over the region on Tuesday with additional scattered shower and thunderstorm development possible during the day. Upper level flow will shift to the northwest by Wednesday and allow a cold front to move into the Mid-South and possibly stall out. This front will serve as a focus for showers and thunderstorms. Some drier air may work its way into areas north of I-40 by Thursday, but the airmass will remain quite moist. An expansive upper low will drop down into the Northern Plains on Thursday and expand all the way into the Ohio Valley by late week. The evolution of the upper low is not resolved by either of the main synoptic models at this point. Nonetheless, at least a couple pieces of energy will rotate around the large system and dive southeast into the Lower Mississippi Valley. This will bring yet another threat of showers and thunderstorms to the Mid-South next weekend. AC3 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 A trough axis continues to churn over Missouri resulting in continued scattered showers across the area. VFR conditions look to prevail at MEM/JBR, though a brief lowering to MVFR at both terminals is possible over the next several hours. MVFR conditions are expected to remain at MKL/TUP through around sunset. As the trough axis begins to rotate east, clouds look to begin to clear, creating a great environment for fog development and reduced vsbys at JBR/MKL/TUP. Fog may develop briefly at MEM overnight, though confidence was not high enough to include in TAF. As fog develops over TUP, conditions are also expected to lower to IFR through sunrise tomorrow with ample moisture availability moves over northern Mississippi. Light west/southwest winds are expected to remain across all terminals through the TAF period. AEH && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3 AVIATION...AEH