832
FXUS64 KMEG 230804
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
304 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Active weather will continue today through much of the forecast.
Showers and thunderstorms are possible each day with some
thunderstorms being strong to severe. Dry conditions do not look to
return until next Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Mostly quiet weather can be found across the Mid-South at this hour,
but showers and thunderstorm chances will increase as the sun rises.
CAMs are struggling this active MCS/MCV weather pattern. A stalled
frontal boundary near the AR/MO border will pull ample moisture when
lifting back north by this evening. Convection is likely to fire up
across west Tennessee late this morning into the early afternoon.
Confidence is medium for the afternoon convection period.

The uncertainty lies in a potential round for morning convection as
well as a late evening round as two MCS`s and their decaying
vortices aim for the Mid-South. The NAMNest and ARW paint a MCS
to decay as it moves northeast across the Mid-South around 7 AM
this morning. Severe weather potential would be limited until late
morning and afternoon insolation. The HRRR depicts an MCV (from
the current ongoing convection in Oklahoma) to take a southward
dive across north Mississippi late this afternoon into the
evening.

Deterministic soundings are indicative of a damaging wind and large
hail as the primary threats for any storms that can develop a strong
updraft. Deterministic soundings are showing around 2000 J/kg of
MLCAPE, 0-6 km Bulk Shear values between 30-40 kts, and 0-1 SRH
values ~50 m^2/s^2. PWs are in the 90th percentile today, but soils
are very saturated across the Mid-South from recent rainfall. If
storms do begin to train (or heavy downpours) flooding chances are
higher today with a Marginal Risk for severe weather and A Slight
Risk for Excessive Rainfall in place.

Another Slight Risk for severe weather is in place for Friday as
another MCS takes aim. Guidance is hinting at this arrival to be
early Friday morning, but guidance has struggled with this pattern.
SPC has highlighted at least a 30% chance of severe weather on
Sunday as a deepening low pressure system will cross the Plains. Dry
conditions finally look to return on Tuesday under high pressure.

DNM

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Mainly VFR conditions will persist through the overnight hours.
SHRAs and TSRAs may develop near JBR and MEM around daybreak and
spread east through late morning to MKL and TUP. Confidence on
coverage and timing is low as Hi-res guidance has a lot of spread
between models. Nonetheless, stayed close to hi-res ensemble
guidance to draft the TAFs. By late afternoon, skies should clear
as convection lifts out of the area. Winds will remain from the
south and southwest through much of the period.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...AC3