Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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340 FXUS64 KMEG 262035 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 335 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 155 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 One final round of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected tonight before a period of drier weather is expected for the upcoming work week. A few showers and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday, mainly in north Mississippi, but much more widespread storms return next weekend. Cooler temperatures are expected Wednesday featuring highs around 80 degrees. Temperatures will trend warmer Thursday into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 315 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Additional thunderstorms this afternoon look uncertain, but any storms that do develop have a high potential to become severe. Data from A Little Rock special sounding has increased confidence that severe storms capable of strong tornadoes, very large hail, and intense damaging winds are possible this afternoon and continuing into the evening. The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded northern portions of west Tennessee, far northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel to a Tornado/Wind driven Moderate Risk(level 4/5) in their Day 1 Convective Outlook. A line of showers and thunderstorms associated with a cold front is expected to traverse the Midsouth tonight. CAMS have been inconsistent in how solid this line will be but timing has been pretty solid. Expect the main threat from strong to severe thunderstorms between 9 PM and 5 AM. Tornadoes, damaging wind, large hail and flooding from heavy rain are all possible. The threat of tornadoes should diminish through the night as hodographs lengthen resulting in less pronounced low level shear. However, as the line interacts with any outflow boundaries from storms earlier today, or additional storms this afternoon, the localized threat for a tornado could become enhanced. A Flood watch remains in effect for the northern half of the Midsouth through 7 AM. Portions of the Missouri bootheel and west Tennessee along the Kentucky State Line where MRMS data indicates 2-4 inches has already fallen will be most vulnerable for additional flooding. Local amounts of rain in excess of 6 inches has likely fallen in this region prompting Flood and Flash flood Warnings. Any additional rain has a high potential to exacerbate ongoing flooding issues. Surface high pressure will build in on Monday behind the overnight line of storms. A few showers may still linger in north Mississippi and along the Tennessee River around Sunrise tomorrow, but Memorial Day looks dry across most of the Midsouth. Highs Tomorrow and Tuesday are expected to be in the middle 80s to around 90 degrees. A low amplitude long wave trough will shift across the Upper and Middle Mississippi River Valley late Tuesday into Wednesday along with a cold front. A shortwave will track from southeast Oklahoma into south Mississippi possibly helping to initiate a few showers and thunderstorms in north Mississippi Wednesday. High temperatures Wednesday are expected to be around 80 degrees. Temperatures will trend warmer Thursday into next weekend with highs back in the mid 80s by Sunday. More widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to return to the Midsouth next weekend. 30/Sirmon && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 CAMS continue to show very little activity across the Midsouth this afternoon despite ongoing storms along the Tennessee/Kentucky state line. Will not included any mention this afternoon at any TAF site, but an isolated storm cannot be ruled out. Overnight, a line of showers and thunderstorms will likely impact all TAF sites. MVFR ceilings are possible in the vicinity of thunderstorms. Convection should exit the Midsouth shortly after sunrise. South winds today at 10 to 15 knots with gusts over 25kt will shift to the southwest behind the thunderstorms overnight. Low level wind shear is likely tonight, but TS in the TAF will preclude any mention. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Flood Watch through Monday morning for ARZ009-018-026>028-035- 036-048. MO...Flood Watch through Monday morning for MOZ113-115. MS...None. TN...Flood Watch through Monday morning for TNZ001>004-019>022- 048>055-088>092. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS AVIATION...JDS