Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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516 FXUS64 KMEG 222356 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 656 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 359 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 An unsettled period of weather will continue across the Mid-South tonight through next Tuesday. This will bring a potential for showers and thunderstorms each day across the Mid-South. Some of these thunderstorms have the potential to become strong to severe each day through at least Sunday night. Drier weather will begin to return by next Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 359 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 An active afternoon across the Mid-South as a moderate to strong instability combined with 40-50 kts shear, and favorable upper- level divergence to produce severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall across the Mid-South. Latest surface analysis places a surface low near Duluth, MN with a cold front extending south into Indiana, the Missouri Bootheel, and back into Western Arkansas and the Red River Valley. As of 3 PM CDT, temperatures are in the upper 70s to lower 80s even where convective activity has occurred over the past 2 to 3 hours. Short-term models including the latest CAMs indicate the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms to continue across portions of the Mid-South, mainly for areas in West Tennessee near the Tennessee River and most of north Mississippi except for areas along and east of a line from Tutwiler to Aberdeen, Ms. Otherwise, there may be a bit of a minimum in convective coverage this evening as the MCS departs. Subtle shortwave troughs embedded in nearly zonal flow aloft will move across the Lower Mississippi Valley into the upcoming Memorial Day weekend. Moderate to strong instability combined with 0-6 km Bulk Shear values between 30-40 kts suggest the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday especially during peak heating and again during the day on Friday. Damaging winds and large hail will remain the primary severe weather threats along with a potential for heavy rainfall. Long-term model trends suggest the potential for a better threat of severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into Sunday night as a stronger mid-level trough moves through the region. High pressure will bring a gradual end to rain chances on Tuesday. CJC && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 644 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Mainly VFR conditions through the period. In the short term, a complex of SHRAs and TSRAs will move near MEM over the next couple of hours. This complex may hold together and affect TUP through 06Z. Thereafter, a lull in convective activity is expected at all sites for several hours overnight, with redevelopment near sunrise. Most SHRAs and TSRAs should be out of the area by early afternoon. TUP may see additional convection late in the TAF period, but confidence remains low at this time. AC3 && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...AC3