Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
693 FXUS64 KMEG 130704 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 204 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Dry and progressively hotter conditions are expected each day until Sunday. Rain chances return with slightly less hot conditions early next week. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 GOES nighttime satellite depicts clear skies coupled with most observation sites reporting calm winds at this hour. Low dewpoint depressions less than 2 degrees in some areas may allow patchy fog to develop early this morning, especially east of the Mississippi River. This scenario will likely repeat itself for the next several overnight periods as surface high pressure sits over the Mid-South and precludes any substantial wind or cloud cover from developing. The main story of this forecast period is heat ramping up this weekend. Midlevel ridging will start to build over the southeast CONUS on Saturday, trapping a hot air mass in place through Sunday. Temperatures on Saturday will jump to the mid 90s and continue climbing into the upper 90s on Sunday. Dewpoints should just barely exceed 70 degrees, so the heat index may nudge into triple digits but not enough to warrant any heat products. This is an unseasonably hot airmass that will leave temperatures 6-7 degrees above normal this weekend. As the midlevel ridge amplifies further and shifts over to the Mid-Atlantic region, southerly flow will make a stark return early next week. This will allow Gulf coast moisture to surge up the Lower MS River Valley and support rain chances around 20-30% on Monday. Though guidance continues to trend southward on the axis of precipitation, moisture will be plentiful and thus diurnally driven convection may pop up in the afternoons any day next week. Unfortunately, the heat looks like it is here to stay in the extended forecast period. Both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day CPC outlooks depict a 60-70% chance of above normal temperatures (which is about 90 degrees for mid June). CAD && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1126 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 VFR conditions will continue for much of the forecast period. Some locations across eastern sections of the Mid-South could see some MVFR visibilities due to fog overnight. Winds will be light and variable through the entire forecast period. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD AVIATION...ARS