Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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063 FXUS64 KMEG 091951 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 251 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the entire region tonight as a cold front moves through the Mid-South. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible south of the cold front. Large hail, damaging winds, and localized heavy rainfall are the main weather threats. High pressure will build into the region behind the front bringing cooler and drier air for Monday through Wednesday. An upper level ridge will build into the region with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s expected by Thursday and continuing into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Skies are cloudy across extreme northern sections of the Mid-South with mostly sunny weather over the remainder of the region. Temperatures continue to vary quite a bit with readings in the upper 60s over northeast Arkansas to the lower 90s over portions of north Mississippi. The area of showers and thunderstorms that was moving across portions of west Tennessee this morning have exited the region. A second area of showers and thunderstorms are moving into portions of northeast Arkansas and the Missouri bootheel. A cold front remains across portions of west Tennessee and east Arkansas. The cold front will continue to move south tonight. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon and tonight ahead of the front. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible tonight south of the front. Damaging winds, large hail and locally heavy rainfall are all possible with these thunderstorms. High pressure will start to build into the region late tonight with thunderstorms confined to extreme southern sections of the Mid-South overnight. Temperatures will turn cooler behind the front with lows Monday morning in the upper 50s to mid 60s. High pressure will remain over the region for Monday through Wednesday. This will result in dry weather and below normal temperatures during this period. Highs on Monday will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s with highs in the mid 80s across the entire region by Wednesday. By Thursday, an upper level ridge starts to slide east across the southern Plains and into the southeast U.S. This will result in a period of dry weather and above normal temperatures. Highs on Thursday and Saturday will be in the low to mid 90s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1257 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Scattered TSRA was ongoing over northern AR at discussion time. This convection was focused near a synoptic cold front and aided by a weak shortwave lifting east across southern MO. Further south, the airmass was capped behind an outflow boundary that passed through MEM around 16Z. TSRA coverage should be sufficiently sparse to preclude a TS mention at MEM, by the time the front reaches MEM and daytime heating wanes. Main area of focus will be where the synoptic front and outflow boundary intersect, currently over NW AR. Some TSRA development will be possible southeastward along the boundary with daytime heating, and with the aid of a shortwave tracking along the MO/AR border. Further down the boundary over north MS, primary TSRA driver will be daytime heating, primarily affecting TUP. PWB && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...ARS AVIATION...PWB