142
FXUS64 KMEG 010949
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
449 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 435 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Following widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms early this
morning, additional showers and thunderstorms will redevelop
later today, mainly east of the Mississippi River. Rainfall coverage
should be considerably less than on Friday.

Warm and humid conditions will continue through the middle of next
week, which will support additional showers and thunderstorms. A
cold front will pass through the Midsouth Wednesday night into
Thursday, bringing showers and thunderstorms, followed by lower
humidity and drier conditions late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 435 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms were lifting through
the Midsouth at discussion time. This convection was rooted in an
elevated layer, in advance of a deamplifying upper trough lifting
through MO. A shortwave was evident on radar and GOES imagery
over eastern AR, rotating around the main trough to the the north.

Convection will lift east with the deamplifying trough today, with
areas east of the MS River seeing the greatest potential for
redevelopment in the heat of the day. For tonight, wet ground,
partial clearing and light winds will provide favorable conditions
for patchy fog development.

Low amplitude upper level ridging will provide mostly sunny skies
and warmer temperatures on Sunday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
will be possible during the afternoon. With weak shear, confidence
on coverage and location of thunderstorms is limited. Most areas
will see no rainfall Sunday.

The pattern will become more unsettled Monday and Tuesday, as the
upper ridge axis lifts to our east. A upper trough, perhaps
convectively-reinforced, will lift through the Ozarks, producing
sufficient height falls over the Midsouth to aid in thunderstorm
organization and persistence. Medium range models depict a more
pronounced upper trough rotating through the Ozarks on Tuesday.
The Monday and Tuesday systems will encounter weakly-capped,
convectively unstable air over the Midsouth, with PWAT ranging
from 1.5 to 2.0 inches.

A relatively deep upper level low will form over the Great Lakes
late Wednesday into early Thursday. Upper level flow will transition
to the northwest across the Midsouth on Wednesday, with pre-frontal
moisture pooling contributing to PWAT values near 2 inches. The
cold front will push through the Midsouth late Wednesday night and
early Thursday, in tandem with strengthening northwest flow
aloft. This front will provide focus showers and thunderstorms,
before fair weather and lower humidity arrive Friday and Saturday.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1029 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

A slow moving upper level low will result in periods of showers and
thunderstorms for much of the upcoming TAF period, especially at
TUP and MKL. Prevailing winds will remain southerly generally
10-15kts with gusts in the 15-20kt range. IFR cigs overnight
should slowly improve mid to late morning. Short term guidance
has convection shifting east of the MEM airspace during the late
afternoon hours, but confidence is not high in this solution.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...JDS