386
FXUS64 KMEG 241139
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
639 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible today as a cold front
slowly moves across the region. A few thunderstorms may be strong to
severe, along the Tennessee River Valley with gusty winds being the
primary threat. An upper level disturbance will reside over the
region for the next several days resulting in below normal
temperatures and above normal precipitation chances through the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Latest surface analysis depicts a stalled frontal boundary just to
the northwest of the Missouri Bootheel. This boundary combined with
around 40kts of effective shear, has been able to fire up some
convection depicted on KNQA at this hour. A weak bit of CIN has been
able to allow these storms to quickly collapse on themselves in
early stages. Prior to collapse of these storms, gusty winds (50 mph
or less) remain the primary threat.

As daytime heating commences, surface based instability will rise,
lift provided from the aforementioned front slowly pushing
southeast; a Marginal Risk for severe weather is in place. Mid-level
lapse rates will be the limiting factor in any deep convection
development today. A few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out
today with primary threats being damaging winds and hail. Areas
along the Tennessee River Valley have the highest chance of seeing a
strong to severe storm this afternoon into evening hours.

A deep trough from the Northern Plains will phase with the slow
moving front expected to cross the region today. The result of this
phase, will leave a cutoff low over the Middle Mississippi Valley for a
large portion of the forecast period. This will result in below
normal temperatures and above normal precipitation chances.

Awaiting a pattern change will come from the development and track
of Tropical Cyclone 9 anticipated to make landfall along the Florida
Panhandle later this week. The current precipitation forecast from
WPC for the next 7 days is 2-3" along the Tennessee River Valley and
less further west. This forecast will likely change depending on the
track of the tropical system and the potential interaction with the
presence of the cut off low.

DNM

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

A cold front will push across the region today with scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms. MVFR cigs are likely along and
north of I-40 this morning improving to VFR this afternoon.
Highest potential for TSRA will be a TUP this afternoon into the
early evening. The SHRA/TSRA activity will push east of the Mid-
South this evening. Post-frontal low clouds will likely develop at
TUP late tonight. Fog is a possibility across eastern section
tonight though cloud cover could mitigate development. Light winds
are expected through the period, gradually shifting from SW to
NW/N.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...SJM