937
FXUS64 KMEG 232010
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
310 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

A series of cold fronts will move through the Mid-South over the
next seven days. The fronts will bring chances for showers and
thunderstorms and brief respites from the heat and humidity.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

A weak cold front has pushed into the Missouri Bootheel and
Northeast Arkansas this afternoon. A few showers have developed
ahead of the front. Expect additional development of showers and
thunderstorms to occur for the remainder of the afternoon into
the evening as the front interacts with peak heating. Can`t rule
out an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm occurring late this
afternoon into the evening hours.

The front will push south of the CWA overnight. Drier air will
begin to filter into much of West Tennessee and Northeast
Mississippi as surface high pressure builds over the Ohio Valley.
Temperatures will remain warm on Monday but with the lower
humidity heat index values will not reach advisory conditions.
However, this won`t be the case across Eastern Arkansas, Memphis,
and Northwest Mississippi stretching southeastward to Monroe
County. The location of the washed out front just to the southwest
will keep dewpoints higher in this region. The combination of high
temperatures in the upper 90s and the higher humidity will once
again produce heat indices in the 105-110 degrees Monday afternoon
into Monday evening. A new heat advisory has been issued.

By Tuesday, the surface high will shift east allowing for
southwesterly flow to occur across the entire Mid-South. This will
spread the higher dewpoints back across the entire region. With
highs expected once again in the upper 90s to possibly 100
degrees, a heat advisory will likely need to be issued for the
entire area.

Relief will come late Tuesday Night into Wednesday as a cold front
moves southward from the Mid-West. A few models are show a dying
MCS moving into Northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and
Northwest Tennessee during the morning hours. Redevelopment of
thunderstorms would likely occur by the afternoon hours on
Wednesday in the vicinity of old outflow boundaries and the front.
Regardless, the temperature forecast will be tricky due to
convection and cloud cover. Would not be shocked if heat
advisories would still be needed for parts of North Mississippi on
Wednesday.

Drier air will then once again filter into the region Wednesday
Night into Thursday as surface high pressure builds over the Ohio
Valley. Expect lower humidity with warm days and cool nights.

The heat and humidity will return again for the end of the week
into next weekend as the surface high moves east on Friday.
Another cold front will move into the region on Saturday. This
front may have the potential to stall out due to the upper ridge
building across Central Mississippi. Expect chances for showers
and thunderstorms to occur across the period.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

A weak cold front will push across the area late this afternoon
into this evening. Expect isolated SHRAs/TSRAs along the front
with perhaps the better chance of TSRAs further NE along the
front at MKL where the shear is a little stronger. Elsewhere will
just go with a VCSH. Otherwise mainly VFR conds expected. Gusty SW
winds this afternoon will diminish to light and variable tonight
becoming E/NE Monday.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-018-026>028-
     035-036-048-049-058.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Monday for ARZ009-018-026-
     027-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MSZ001>017-020>024.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Monday for MSZ001-007-008-
     010>013-020>024.

TN...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TNZ001>004-019>022-
     048>055-088>092.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Monday for TNZ088.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...KRM
AVIATION...SJM