Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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296 FXUS64 KMEG 211715 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1215 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 430 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Dry conditions and above normal temperatures will persist through this weekend as high pressure remains in place. A pattern change will occur early next week as a cold front moves through the region. Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible. Dry and much cooler conditions will move into the Mid-South by the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Friday) Issued at 430 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 A mostly quiet night across the Mid-South at this hour. The latest KNQA radar sweep reveals pockets of isolated showers near the I-40 corridor with mainly dry conditions across the rest of the Mid- South. Temperatures are mainly in the low to mid 70s with partly cloudy skies. The latest GOES East Water Vapor Imagery reveals a large ridge of high pressure centered over Texas with a weakening MCS riding the ridge over southern Missouri and a new MCS building behind it near Kansas City. Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible through early afternoon as the remnants of the aforementioned MCSs move into the region. Coverage will remain between 20 and 30 PoPs and mainly north of I-40. Despite morning clouds and showers, temperatures will still be quite warm this afternoon with readings in the upper 80s to middle 90s. Dry weather will persist on Sunday as the ridge of high pressure builds east into the Mid-South. The pattern will change on Monday as the aforementioned ridge flattens out and a cold front and upper level shortwave move into the region. Showers and scattered thunderstorms will begin as early as Monday morning and persist into Tuesday as a shortwave ejects. A limited threat of strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible mainly Monday afternoon and evening. Models struggle to resolve the upper level pattern Wednesday through next weekend. With marked differences in key synoptic features, decided to stick with the NBM through the mid and long range forecast. Expect cooler than normal temperatures and low chances for rain. AC3 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 VFR. Patchy fog is expected overnight at MKL. TUP could also see some patchy fog over this same period, though confidence was not high enough to include in TAF. VCTS will continue at JBR through the afternoon as a decaying MCS continues moving over NE AR/the MO Bootheel. Convection may impact MEM later this afternoon, though confidence was not high enough to prevail in TAF. Predominately south/southwest winds sub 10 kts will remain across all terminals. AEH && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3 AVIATION...AEH