886
FXUS64 KMEG 162048
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
348 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 340 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms will return to
the Mid-South on Monday and Tuesday as several upper level
disturbances move across the region. Dry and hot conditions will
return midweek and persist into the weekend as upper level high
pressure builds into the Mid-South. Expect above normal
highs in the mid to upper 90s with lows in the 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

A hot day across the Mid-South at this hour. Temperatures are
running 5 to 7 degrees above normal with readings in the mid to
upper 90s. The exception is over extreme northeast Arkansas and
the Missouri Bootheel, where thunderstorms have been occurring for
the past couple of hours and cooled into the mid 80s. Heat
indices peaked at 105F for several locations this afternoon, but
have since mixed back down just below the 105F threshold. Will
continue the heat advisory for another hour or so and reevaluate,
as only two locations are currently at 105F or higher.

The latest GOES-East Water Vapor Imagery reveals a large ridge of
high pressure stretching from east Texas northeast into the Ohio
River Valley with weak troughing extending from Central Plains up
into the Great Lakes region.

The heat will take a backseat starting tomorrow as scattered
showers and thunderstorms return to the region. Several
perturbations will rotate clockwise around the upper level ridge
and into the Mid-South Monday through late Tuesday. The first
wave is expected to move into the region Monday morning with the
highest shower and thunderstorm coverage coinciding with peak
heating. A few lingering showers and storms may continue into the
overnight hours. Convective coverage will remain between 30 and
50 PoPs on Tuesday. Thereafter, the aforementioned ridge of high
pressure will retrograde back west and build into the Lower
Mississippi Valley. This will translate to hot and dry conditions
across the region through the early part of the weekend. Some
weakening of the ridge may occur as early as Friday with mainly
diurnally-driven isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
each day.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

While VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all sites through
the TAF period, instances of reduced VIS and CIGS may be possible
with SHRA/TSRA. Greater precipitation chances, including the
possibility for TSRA, look to affect the Mid-South starting
tomorrow afternoon, but confidence in TSRA timing and coverage
remains too low for a prevailing group at this time.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-018-026-028.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-115.

MS...None.
TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TNZ001>004-019>022-
     048-050>055-091-092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...JPR