739
FXUS64 KMEG 290431
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1131 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 910 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

A warm night is on the horizon as current temperatures are in the
low to mid 80s with light south/southeast winds at the surface
under mostly clearly skies across the Mid-South as we sit under
amplified mid-level ridging. Tomorrow`s afternoon highs will
skyrocket into the mid to upper 90s as mid-level ridging continues
to build across the region, leading to dangerously hot
conditions. Heat index values >=105 F will be analyzed across the
area tomorrow with portions of northeast Arkansas and the
Mississippi Delta seeing heat index values >=110 F. Areas with
heat index values >=110F will be under an Excessive Heat Warning
while the rest of the area will be under a Heat Advisory effective
11 AM through 8 PM tomorrow.

Shower and thunderstorm chances return to northeast Arkansas, the
Missouri Bootheel, and West Tennessee tomorrow afternoon and into
continuing into Sunday as a shortwave and associated cold front
push in from the West, de-amplifying the present ridge. A
conditional chance for severe weather exists tomorrow evening and
into the overnight hours as convection will be entering into an
environment with forecast surface based CAPE values around
1500-2000 J/kg and Bulk shear values around 20-25 kts. Primary
threats will be damaging winds, large hail, and localized heavy
rainfall.

The current forecast package is on track

AEH

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Hot conditions will continue through Saturday as ridging continues
to amplify over the Mid-South. A cold front will bring increasing
rain chances to the region starting Saturday, with the potential
for strong to severe thunderstorms across portions of the Missouri
Bootheel and northeastern Arkansas. Hot and dry conditions resume
on Tuesday and look to persist through the latter part of the
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Latest water vapor analysis shows mid-level heights continue to
rise, as mid-level ridging amplifies over the region. Today`s
temperatures are expected to warm into the low 90s with dewpoint
temperatures in the low to mid 70s. This has yielded heat index
values near or above 100 degrees area wide today. Heat index
values across portions of the MS delta are a bit warmer near 105
degrees, where a heat advisory remains in effect until 8pm CDT.

Temperatures on Saturday will be even hotter, as a mid-level
heights continue to build. An Excessive Heat Warning is in effect
for areas in the MS Delta and west of the river, with a Heat
Advisory in effect elsewhere across the Mid-South. Dangerously hot
temperatures greater than 105 degrees will be common in the
advisory area with temperatures greater than 110 degrees in areas
under the Excessive Heat Warning. Therefore, be sure to know the
signs of heat related illness and limit your time outdoors.

Some breakdown of expansive ridging looks to occur starting late
Saturday, as a mid-level trough moves across the Upper Midwest. A
cold front associated with this trough will move toward the Mid-
South on Saturday night. Precipitation chances will increase ahead
of this front with the possibility for some strong to severe
storms on Saturday night. Forecast soundings from CAM guidance
depicts elevated instability (~1500+ J/kg), rooted near 850mb that
will be coupled with around 30-40 knots of effective shear,
suggesting the potential for damaging wind gusts, severe hail, and
locally heavy rainfall across portions of the Missouri Bootheel
and northeastern Arkansas. Precipitation chances will continue
across the Mid-South on Sunday, as a cold front moves through the
Mid-South. Temperatures will be cooler on Sunday and Monday,
though some areas across north Mississippi may still see
temperatures approaching the mid 90s.

Temperatures will quickly rebound on Tuesday with possible heat
headlines across portions of the Mississippi Delta region.
Wednesday and Thursday look even hotter with the potential for
more widespread heat headlines, though some of this may be
mitigated by increasing precipitation chances. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

VFR conditions should continue for much of the forecast period.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be moving into northern
sections of the Mid-South Saturday evening. Winds will be mainly
from the south around 5 knots overnight and continuing into
Saturday morning. Winds will shift to the southwest at 5 to 10
knots by late Saturday morning.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for
     ARZ009-018-026-027-035-048-049-058.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ028-036.

MO...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for
     MSZ007-010>012-020.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ001>006-008-
     009-013>017-021>024.

TN...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for TNZ001>004-
     019>022-048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JPR
AVIATION...ARS