334
FXUS64 KMEG 180434
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1134 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 927 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

A narrow ridge extending from southeast Texas into the Wisconsin
will broaden as it shifts east over the next several days keeping
us clear and dry. Temperatures will be a bit above normal. The
next chance of rain will be early next week ahead of a cold front
moving out of the Plains.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Calm and warmer weather is expected throughout the week. Highs are
forecast to reach into the middle to upper 80s with lows around
60. No precipitation chances are expected until next week.
Confidence is increasing for early morning fog for tonight and
tomorrow night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Monday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

A unique upper pattern currently presents itself across the CONUS
with a deep trough over the mountain west and a low-latitude Rex
Block over the eastern CONUS. The blocking residing over
Appalachia will prevent any energy associated with the western
trough from moving longitudinally over the next several days. Only
until the weak upper low creating this block fills in will we
have the chance to regain a more progressive upper level pattern.
In the meantime, expect to see a somewhat persistent forecast with
drier and warmer conditions in general.

Today`s weather is currently proceeding according to the
persistent warming and drying pattern explained above. Highs have
reached into the middle to upper 80s today across the entire
region thanks to sunny skies. Throughout the week similar
conditions are expected with lows reaching into the low 60s and
highs into the 80s. No significant precipitation is expected.
Eventually the eastern blocking will be absorbed by the
background westerlies and precipitation will return to the
forecast. Current ensembles (GEFS/ECMWF) show this breakdown
occurring over the weekend with some PoPs appearing by Monday, but
this is too far out to provide any more details.

The most notable headline over the next couple of days is fog.
Francine drenched the region with over 3" of rain, allowing for
very high soil moisture. With clear skies, radiative cooling will
likely condense some of this moisture as it evaporates and pools
near the surface overnight. Therefore, confidence is relatively
high in fog tonight and tomorrow night across much of the region.
However, the rest of the week still offers chances at seeing fog,
but confidence is not currently high enough to mention at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

VFR. Fog with reduced vsbys is expected to form at JBR/MKL/TUP
over the next few hours as clear skies, calm winds, and and a
saturated environment remains. Fog is possible along these same
conditions at MEM tomorrow morning. Light predominantly northeast
winds will prevail through the TAF period.

AEH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...AEH