814
FXUS64 KMEG 161935
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
235 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Isolated showers will continue to move out of the Mid-South this
evening, with dry conditions expected tomorrow through at least
Saturday. High temperatures will be near normal the remainder of
the week, generally in the 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

The story of two different weather patterns is currently
unfolding across the Mid-South. The northeastern half of the area
has largely clear skies, with temperatures reaching into the low
to mid 80s under a sunny sky. Meanwhile, across the southwestern
half of the area, a soggy pattern continues with broken to
overcast skies, some light rain continuing, and temperatures in
the 70s. The remnant moisture from Francine currently trapped
across the southwestern half of the area will finally begin to
move out of the area this evening, leaving behind a warmer and
drier weather pattern through the remainder of the week. As for
tonight, dew point depressions are pretty low under a clearing sky
and light winds. As such, wouldn`t be surprised if patchy to
locally dense fog were to develop for many. Any fog that does
develop should quickly mix out shortly after sunrise.

For the remainder of the forecast period, the Mid-South will
remain under a weak ridge influence, allowing a drier and warmer
weather pattern to move back into the area. This pattern will
likely remain largely unchanged through at least Saturday, with
several models hinting at it sticking around into early next week.
After many days of rain, I am sure much of the area is okay with
dry conditions. Plus the recent rain was steady enough that some
drought improvements are likely. As for our temperatures through
the remainder of the week, expect for high temperatures generally
in the 80s with overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Morning showers have begun to dissipate over the past couple
hours and drops to MVFR have become seldom. This trend is expected
to continue throughout the day as drier air finally overcomes the
moisture left behind by Francine this weekend. Therefore, clouds
should be well above VFR at all terminals by 21z this afternoon
and FEW250/SKC early tonight.

With clearing overnight and very saturated soils across the area,
moisture will be abundant at or just above the surface. Coupling
the surface moisture with clear skies will allow for a decent
amount of radiative cooling to occur across much of the region. In
response, FG/BR is somewhat of a concern at any terminal where
such cooling can occur. At the moment this appears to be most
likely at JBR/TUP since dry air advection is expected to eat away
at moisture in MEM/MKL. Confidence in these impacts are still
somewhat low and could be changed in subsequent TAF issuances.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...JAB