899
FXUS64 KMEG 150436
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1136 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 821 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Yet another round of rain associated with an upper level low is
moving through the Midsouth. Lightning has been non-existent
across the area. Extensive cloud cover and dew point depressions
of only 1-2 degrees will prevent temperatures from falling much
from where they are currently. Expect lows in upper 60s across
most of the area. No changes planned for the Flood Watch. Rain
will continue tomorrow with a drying trend early in the work week.
Temperatures look to remain mild through midweek.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Scattered thunderstorms will remain in the forecast across the
Mid-South through Monday. Some areas could see an additional 1 to
2 inches of rainfall between now and Monday evening. By Tuesday,
drier and slightly warmer conditions are expected through the
remainder of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Very little changes from the previous forecast as our soggy
weather pattern will remain across the Mid-South through Monday
thanks to the remnants of Francine. Surface low has drifted over
north MS through the day, bringing additional showers across the
region. Very little movement is expected from this low pressure
over the next 48 hours, keeping a dreary weather pattern across
the Mid-South. I have knocked the thunderstorm potential back a
bit based on observations through the day. While there is some
surface instability, showers have struggled to tap into this
potential and there hasn`t been any lightning activity across the
area today. I won`t rule out thunderstorms completely, but my
confidence is very, very low for any organized thunderstorm
activity through the remainder of today and into tomorrow. Flood
Watch continues for portions of the Mid-South along the TN River,
but this remains highly conditional. Heaviest rainfall has
luckily stayed to the east of the area, but will keep things
status quo in case a convective band sets up through the afternoon
to evening. Total additional rainfall amounts will likely be
around 1 to 2 inches across the area. Amounts closer to 2 inches
are more likely across north MS, with the potential for <1 inch
elsewhere.

Weak upper-level ridge will begin to develop across the
south-central plains on Tuesday, slowly shifting across the region
by the end of the work week. This will bring a drier and somewhat
warmer pattern back to the Mid-South, likely lasting into next
weekend. High temperatures will generally remain in the 80s with
overnight lows in the 60s, which is near normal for the area for
mid-September.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

An upper low will continue to churn over the Mid-South leading to
a pretty decent IFR deck spreading across JBR/MEM/TUP over the
next few hours. MKL may lower to IFR, though confidence was not
high enough to include in TAF. By daybreak, conditions begin to
improve to MVFR across much of the area. An improvement to VFR
conditions finally looks to begin around sunset tomorrow at
JBR/MKL/TUP. This same low will also bring intermediate periods of
-SHRA/BR with reduced vsbys across all terminals. Northeast winds
will remain elevated around 7-12 kts through the TAF period.

AEH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Sunday for MSZ004>006-009-014>017-023-
     024.

TN...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Sunday for TNZ091-092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...AEH