Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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373 FXUS64 KMEG 291751 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1251 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1202 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 A dry cold front continues to slowly slide south through west Tennessee and eastern Arkansas at this hour. Behind the front, significantly drier air is filtering in along with north winds. Low level cloud cover is non-existent, so temperatures should continue to climb into the low to mid 80s areawide through late afternoon. A few diurnally-driven afternoon showers or thunderstorms are possible across portions of northwest Mississippi and southeast Arkansas, or where the greatest instability will reside ahead of the frontal passage. Went ahead and bumped temperatures up a couple of degrees to account for short term trends and the dry air in place. Stayed close to the NBM75 for maximum temperature guidance. Kept 20 to 30 PoPs in place for northwest Mississippi and southeast Arkansas this afternoon. AC3 && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 315 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Following areas of early morning patchy fog, temperatures are forecast to warm into the low to upper 80s today. Increasing shower and thunderstorm chances are expected to occur across portions of eastern Arkansas and north Mississippi later today. A cold front will bring slightly cooler temperatures to the Mid-South starting on Thursday with a gradual warming trend on Sunday. An unsettled weather pattern should bring increasing rain chances to the region starting late this week and into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 315 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Areas of patchy fog may occur tonight and into the early morning hours, as temperatures continue to radiate under calm winds and clear skies. High temperatures today will range from the low to upper 80s under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Cloud cover should begin to increase from the west later today, as mid-level disturbance moves toward the Mid-South. This feature is expected to bring increasing precipitation chances to portions of eastern Arkansas and northern Mississippi. A cold front will move through the region tomorrow, bringing slightly cooler temperatures to the Mid-South through at least Saturday, followed by a gradual warming trend on Sunday. An unsettled weather pattern is still forecast to affect the Mid- South starting later this week, lasting into early part of next week as several low amplitude mid to upper level perturbations parse a mostly quasi zonal flow regime. This pattern will bring daily rain chances to the region through a bulk of the forecast period. While there does not appear to be a good signal for severe potential in the extended period, the 00z run of the deterministic ECMWF shows a relatively unstable environment with steep mid-level lapse rates and marginally favorable effective shear magnitudes across portions of the Mid-South on Monday evening. Furthermore, there appears to be a southward surging convective line depicted by this model that emanates over portions of the Mid-West. Despite the robustness of this particular solution, other global guidance and related ensemble counterparts appear to differ, which offers little confidence in this scenario at this time. Stay tuned! && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period as a weak and dry cold front dives south across the airspace. Late this evening and in the overnight period, a few scattered showers and/or isolated thunderstorms may surge up from the MS Delta region, but confidence in reaching any of the terminals was too low to mention any precip in the TAFs. Most convection, if any, will likely stay south of MEM and west of TUP. Winds will gradually shift around to the east and eventually settle around 7-9 kts by Thursday morning. CAD && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JPR AVIATION...CAD