311
FXUS62 KMFL 291143
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
743 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 325 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

The overall pattern today will be similar to yesterday with broad
troughing over the east coast and west-northwest flow aloft prevailing
over SFL. At the surface, the synoptic gradient will remain light
south of a stalled cold front over Central Florida, favoring a
relatively deep inland progression of both sea breezes. Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop along the sea breeze
boundaries with the steering flow generally tracking convection towards
the east coast by the late afternoon period. Once again a few stronger
multi-cellular storms will be possible with strong winds being the main
convective hazard, given the steep low lvl lapse rates and large DCAPE,
but locally heavy rainfall and small hail will remain secondary
convective hazards. It will remain another hot and humid day (prior to
convective initiation) with highs ranging from the low 90s near the
immediate coasts to the upper 90s in the Interior, along with widespread
peak heat indices of 100-105 degrees.

The main change to the setup for Thursday will be the synoptic flow
gradually trending more easterly, favoring convective progression towards
the Interior and eventually west coast (as opposed to the last few days)
Thursday afternoon. Once again gusty winds will remain the main threat
with any storms, although a widespread organized severe threat looks
unlikely (and any heavy rainfall threat will be tempered by antecedent
dry conditions). One impact of the more notable easterly flow will be
the start of a slight cooling trend for the east coast, with highs
dropping a couple degrees relative to Wednesday (albeit still above
normal), although temperatures likely remain similar over the
Interior/west coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

The setup for Friday will be similar to Thursday with light easterly
synoptic flow prevailing, favoring the highest rain chances over the
Interior and west coast and similar temperatures to Thursday. Heading
into the weekend high pressure north of the area will build southward,
likely pushing the previously-stalled front through the area as a weak
backdoor cold front. This will usher in a shift to a moderate easterly
regime Saturday which should persist into the start of the upcoming
workweek. A drier (particularly at the mid-lvls) and more stable airmass
will filter in behind the boundary which will limit thunderstorm
chances (particularly for the east coast), with any rain likely of the
shallower quick-moving shower variety. Temperatures will also come down a
few degrees with highs in the mid to upper 80s over the east coast, and
lower 90s over the Interior and west coast, with dewpoints also coming
down a bit to keep heat indices (thankfully) depressed relative to the
recent very high values.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 738 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Sea breezes will
work inland after 16Z today, with SE winds 10-15 kts expected for
all East Coast sites and W winds expected at KAPF. Scattered
SHRA/TSRA could impact sites after 20Z, and short-fuse TEMPOs
could be needed for any cig/vis disruptions.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Generally light flow will prevail through the mid-week period with marine
winds largely being driven by diurnal sea-breeze circulations (i.e.
westerly winds over the Gulf and east-southeasterly winds over the
Atlantic) and seas remaining 3 feet or less. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible through the workweek resulting in periods
of locally higher winds and seas. Winds will increase out of the east
late this week into the upcoming weekend with increasing seas over the
Atlantic waters by the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            93  77  91  78 /  40  40  30  10
West Kendall     95  74  93  74 /  50  40  30  10
Opa-Locka        95  76  93  76 /  40  30  20  10
Homestead        93  76  91  76 /  40  40  30  20
Fort Lauderdale  92  76  90  78 /  40  30  20  10
N Ft Lauderdale  93  76  91  77 /  40  30  20  10
Pembroke Pines   96  77  94  78 /  40  30  20  10
West Palm Beach  94  74  91  74 /  40  30  20  10
Boca Raton       94  76  91  76 /  40  30  20  10
Naples           93  77  95  76 /  20  10  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Carr
LONG TERM....Carr
AVIATION...ATV