505
FXUS62 KMFL 301853
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
253 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 1127 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

A subtle upper troughing pattern will remains present across
southeastern CONUS, including South Florida. The east-northeasterly
winds continue to prevail across the region. As a result, the
convergence of low-level moisture, due to ENE winds and the Gulf sea
breeze, will lead to the majority of convective activity occurring
over the interior and southwest Florida. While the 12Z morning
sounding did not have favorable lapse rates (<6.0 J/kg), models
indicate steepening lapse rates this afternoon, as well as CAPE
values (1500 J/kg+). Therefore, we cannot rule out a few strong
thunderstorms, particularly from the early afternoon through late
evening hours.

Tomorrow, there will be a weakening of the upper flow and the
eastward exit of the upper level shortwave into the western Atlantic
waters. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will occur
further westward in the SW coastal and interior regions. Despite
weaker activity than previously this week, the storms will still
bringing potential impacts including strong wind gusts, frequent
lightning, and localized flooding.

For the remainder of the week, the afternoon high temperatures will
remain in the upper 80s to low 90s, with the highest temperatures
expected across the western portions of the region. The eastern
metro will remain above heat advisory criteria, with apparent
temperatures not expected to rise above 100-102 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

A welcomed change in the weather pattern is to be expected across
much of South Florida this upcoming weekend, owing to a backdoor
cold front across the western Atlantic waters. This will maintain
the prevalence of east-northeasterly winds, which will result in a
milder breeze coming in from the Atlantic waters across eastern
portions of our CWFA. Expect a few quick-moving low-topped showers
across the east coast at times, with the bulk of convection
spawning yet again over the interior and southwestern portions of
the region. A generally quiescent synoptic regime should limit
thunderstorm intensity, however cannot rule out a few strong pulse
storms that take advantage of high instability across the
interior region.

Towards the beginning to middle of next week, winds will gradually
veer out of the east, resulting in a slight uptick in temperatures
across the region. Expect a few showers and possibly thunderstorms
in the morning hours across the east coast, with a gradual westward
drift towards the interior again.

A much needed reprieve from the oppressive temperatures can be
expected through the weekend and into early next week across much of
South Florida. Afternoon high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s
can be expected along the east coast. Dewpoints will drop to a more
manageable 65-68 degrees, allowing for lower apparent temperatures
in the upper 80s to low 90s. A gradual warming will take place
towards early to middle portions of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 144 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Afternoon showers and storms are developing around the terminals
and should linger into the early evening before activity
diminishes. An overnight lull in convection will give way to
increasing convection around APF on Friday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1127 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Generally benign boating conditions will continue through the end of
the week. By the weekend, wave heights will increase over the
Atlantic waters with potential for waves as high as 5 to 6 feet
in the presence of a backdoor cold front. Winds may increase out
of the east-northeast, up to around 20 kt, this weekend as well.
This may prompt a Small Craft Advisory, which will be determined
as the time approaches. Aside from this, there is potential for
daily showers and thunderstorms, thus resulting in locally
elevated winds and seas periodically.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1127 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Enhanced easterly flow, in the presence of a departing front,
will increase the risk for rip currents this weekend across the
Atlantic beaches. As a result, a high risk for rip current could
develop across the Atlantic beaches this weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            78  90  78  87 /  20  20  10  40
West Kendall     74  91  75  89 /  20  20  10  40
Opa-Locka        77  91  78  89 /  20  20  10  40
Homestead        77  89  78  88 /  20  20  10  40
Fort Lauderdale  78  88  78  86 /  20  20  10  40
N Ft Lauderdale  78  89  78  87 /  20  20  10  40
Pembroke Pines   78  93  78  90 /  20  20  10  40
West Palm Beach  76  89  76  87 /  30  20  10  30
Boca Raton       77  90  78  88 /  20  20  10  40
Naples           74  96  74  95 /  40  50  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM....SRB
AVIATION...RAG