Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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052 FXUS62 KMFL 241102 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 702 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 217 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024 A broad mid level ridge will continue to extend eastward across the Gulf of Mexico and into South Florida today. At the surface, high pressure will continue to bring a rather light wind flow to the region. This will allow for the east coast sea breeze to propagate further inland once again this afternoon. With a north to northwesterly wind flow in place across the mid levels, this will continue to help usher in a drier air mass over the region which will help to limit shower and thunderstorm activity across the region today. However, a brief shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out later this afternoon into the early evening hours mainly across interior portions of Southwest Florida where the sea breezes will collide and interact with each other. High temperatures today will generally rise into the upper 80s to around 90 across the east coast metro areas and into the lower to mid 90s across interior portions of Southwest Florida. On Saturday, mid level ridging will start to show signs of breaking down and retrograding back to the west southwest in response to a weak mid level shortwave trough pushing off the Southeast coast and into the western Atlantic. This will cause a weak surface trough to push southeastward towards Northern Florida as the day progresses. While this surface trough will remain well off to the north of the region, it will get close enough to cause the lower level winds to become more southerly throughout the day. With the surface trough and mid level shortwave nearby, this may help to provide a little bit of extra lift in combination with the sea breeze boundaries to support a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. The best chances of shower and thunderstorm activity will favor the Lake Okeechobee region and east coast metro areas due to the southerly wind flow. High temperatures on Saturday could approach daily records across the east coast metro areas as they will rise into the lower to mid 90s. With southerly flow in place, interior portions of Southwest Florida could rise into the mid to upper 90s during this time frame. Heat indices will be rising as well as they could range between 100 and 105 with the highest values over the interior. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 217 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024 Heading into the second half of the upcoming Holiday Weekend, Mid level ridging will briefly build back into South Florida as the weak mid level trough pushes away from the region and further into the western Atlantic. The weak surface trough off to the northeast will still be close enough to provide a south to southwesterly wind flow across the region on Sunday and Monday. With subsidence taking place due to the mid level ridge over the region, shower and thunderstorm activity will remain very limited during this time frame with a drier air layer pushing back into the mid levels, however, convection cannot be entirely ruled out. Any shower or thunderstorm development would favor the interior and east coast during this time frame due to the south to southwesterly wind flow and would be low topped and short lived. High temperatures on Sunday and Monday will once again soar to near record values over the east coast metro areas as they rise into the lower to mid 90s. High temperatures will rise into the upper 90s across the interior sections. Heat index values will range between 100 and 105 across most areas during this time frame. On Tuesday into Wednesday, mid level ridging will break down once again as a stronger mid level trough digs southeastward from the Great Lakes Region and pushes across the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, a weakening frontal boundary will push through the Gulf Coast States on Tuesday and then into Northern and Central Florida on Wednesday. Out ahead of this front, south to southwesterly wind flow will continue and moisture advection will take place during this time frame. Uncertainty remains high in this part of the forecast as the latest guidance continues to remain in disagreement regarding how far south the front pushes and if the front holds together by the time it gets this far south. In any event, moisture advection will slowly increase the chances of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday into Wednesday. Most of the shower and thunderstorm development will still be mainly sea breeze driven and the highest chances will remain over the interior and east coast. Hot conditions will remain in place during this time frame as high temperatures rise into the lower to mid 90s across the east coast metro areas and into the upper 90s across the interior sections. With additional moisture moving into the region, heat indices could continue to range between 100 and 105 across most areas with some localized areas rising above 105. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 700 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024 VFR through the 12Z TAF period. Light and variable winds early this morning becoming easterly 10-15 kts after 15Z this morning. A westerly Gulf breeze will develop at APF this afternoon. Winds become light and variable again tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 217 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024 A gentle to moderate easterly wind flow will continue across the local waters today. The exception to this will be over the Gulf waters where winds will become west southwest in the afternoon as the sea breeze develops. Winds across all local waters will gradually become more southerly over the upcoming weekend and then south to southwesterly during the early to middle portion of next week. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet or less through the upcoming weekend and into next week. Isolated showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out across the local waters each day. && .BEACHES... Issued at 217 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024 With onshore flow remaining in place, a moderate risk of rip currents will continue across the Palm Beaches today and into the first part of the weekend. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 217 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024 Listed below are the current records for high temperatures across the east coast metro areas heading into this upcoming holiday weekend: Forecast highs are expected to reach the mid 90s. 5/25 5/26 5/27 MIA: 93-2005 94-1949 96-1902 FLL: 94-1963 94-1924 94-1924 PBI: 96-1949 93-2000 96-1928 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 91 79 92 78 / 10 10 30 10 West Kendall 93 74 94 74 / 10 10 40 10 Opa-Locka 93 77 95 77 / 10 10 30 10 Homestead 90 77 92 77 / 10 10 30 20 Fort Lauderdale 89 78 92 78 / 0 0 30 20 N Ft Lauderdale 90 77 92 77 / 0 0 30 20 Pembroke Pines 94 78 96 78 / 10 0 30 10 West Palm Beach 90 74 94 75 / 0 0 20 20 Boca Raton 91 76 94 77 / 0 0 20 20 Naples 91 78 91 77 / 10 10 10 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CWC LONG TERM....CWC AVIATION...CMF