Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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061 FXUS62 KMFL 151915 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 315 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 1201 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 It`s a very un-June like day across South FL today, with cooler conditions and light stratiform rain falling over the southern half of the area due to a weak low/surface trough over the eastern Gulf. 12Z sounding and ACARS data shows plenty of dry air up through about 700 mb and then saturated at the mid and upper levels. Forecast soundings show the low levels trying to moisten up this afternoon south of Alligator Alley, but there`s plenty of uncertainty on how well that will occur. Not enough confidence at this point to eliminate the remaining Flood Watch over the Broward/Miami-Dade metro, especially with some convection trying to drift northward from the FL Straits, but if the fairly stable conditions hold it`s likely the Watch will be cancelled early. Mainly dry conditions overnight with most shower activity remaining over the Atlantic and Gulf waters. It`ll be another mild evening across the metro areas with lows in the upper 70s to around 80, but low to mid 70s over interior South FL. On Sunday the mid/upper level high moves over the southeast US, which will help bring some drier air into the region. While there will still be plenty of cloud cover, expect some more peaks of sun during the day and overall lower PoPs, with the best chances for scattered showers and storms being over the interior and SW FL with the E/NE flow. Much warmer temps expected, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to around 90. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 314 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Models show fair agreement in pushing a mid level trough/low complex northeastward across the E CONUS, and into the west Atlantic to start the long term. This will result in a gradual shift of winds over SoFlo to a more easterly/northeasterly, which will signal a return to a more closer-to-normal weather pattern for this time of the year. For the first half of the work week, model solutions suggest a sfc high pressure building across the peninsula from the west Atlantic and into the E GOMEX, bringing back the aforementioned more normal summertime weather regime of afternoon seabreeze activity. The prevailing easterly wind direction should favor better chances for showers and thunderstorms over interior areas as the east coast seabreezes should early in the afternoon and quickly push inland. However, a few strong storms could still affect some of the east coast metro areas, especially on days with a weak start of the sea breeze circulations. Highs temperatures are expected to warm up into the upper 80s to low 90s, with heat indices in the upper 90s or even triple digits towards the middle and latter portions of the work week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 108 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Mainly VFR conditions expected today with BKN to OVC mid level clouds. Light rain across the area through early this evening should have little aviation impact. Light westerly winds 5-10 kts will become light and variable overnight and then become easterly 5-10 kts on Sunday. && .MARINE... Issued at 1201 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 A gentle to moderate south to southwest flow early today will become north to northeasterly late today as mid/upper level high pressure starts to build in to our north. Scattered thunderstorms are possible this weekend which may result in locally hazardous winds and seas. Outside of thunderstorms, seas will be generally 2 ft or less this weekend. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1201 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 An elevated risk of rip currents is possible beginning Sunday along the east coast beaches as onshore flow returns. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 79 88 79 88 / 30 30 20 30 West Kendall 75 89 77 90 / 30 30 10 30 Opa-Locka 77 89 79 90 / 30 30 20 30 Homestead 77 88 79 88 / 30 30 20 30 Fort Lauderdale 79 87 80 87 / 30 40 20 30 N Ft Lauderdale 78 88 79 88 / 30 40 20 30 Pembroke Pines 79 91 80 90 / 30 40 20 30 West Palm Beach 77 88 78 88 / 30 40 20 40 Boca Raton 77 89 79 88 / 30 40 20 40 Naples 77 91 76 93 / 40 50 20 50 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ072-074-172>174. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CMF LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...CMF