Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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834 FXUS62 KMFL 230628 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 228 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 227 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Today, mid-level ridging across the Gulf Coast states and the Southeast will slowly start to break down as an amplifying mid- level trough dives down across the Great Lakes and into the eastern US. This will cause the surface high in the western Atlantic to retreat further to the east, which will weaken the east-to-southeasterly winds across South Florida. With deep tropical moisture still in place (PWAT values around 2.1-2.3"), scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected. Storm motion will once again be slow due to the weak steering flow, however, convection initiating along the East Coast in the morning will slowly try to push towards the interior and Gulf Coast during the afternoon and evening hours. With a bit more instability in place as well as the addition of some mid to upper level forcing as the ridge starts to break down, some strong thunderstorms with gusty winds cannot be ruled out later in the afternoon. The primary concern with the storms today is that they will be slow-moving, which will increase the potential for localized flooding, especially for areas that get hit repeatedly, have poor drainage, or are already saturated from heavy rainfall yesterday. High temperatures will generally rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s across most areas, with heat indices around 100-105. While overall convection will not be as widespread, showers and storms will still be around tonight, primarily over the Atlantic waters and along the East Coast metro. On Monday, the mid-level troughing will continue to dive down across the eastern US, pushing out any influence of mid-level ridging over South Florida. The surface high over the Atlantic will weaken further, resulting in very weak southeasterly winds across our area. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will again develop across the area due to the deep tropical moisture in place and enhanced instability from the mid-level trough. Storm motion will remain slow, continuing to lead to localized flooding concerns for poor drainage areas or locations that see multiple rounds of storms. High temperatures will again be in the upper 80s to low 90s, with heat indices around 100-105. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 227 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 The unsettled weather pattern will continue in the long term period as mid-level troughing persists over the eastern seaboard of the US. The trough axis will deamplify a bit on Tuesday, but additional moisture will stream in over South Florida. A reinforcing trough will push into the Southeast US on Wednesday into Thursday, while another burst of tropical moisture moves across the Caribbean to close out the week. Overall, the pattern for hot days and diurnally driven sea-breeze convection will remain, but the additional bursts of tropical moisture and presence of low pressure around the region will allow for scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms each day. Localized flooding will continue to be a concern due to repeated rounds of heavy rainfall as well as slow storm motions. Overnight temperatures, particularly along the East Coast metro areas where weak onshore flow persists, will struggle to drop below 80 most nights this week. High temperatures will remain in the upper 80s to low 90s across the area, with heat index values routinely reaching the triple digits each day, with some pockets reaching 105 to 108 range by mid to late week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 103 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 SCT MVFR ceilings possible across the east coast metro early this morning, with light and variable winds. SCT showers and thunderstorms increase in coverage towards dawn for the east coast terminals, with additional showers and storms possible this afternoon into early evening. Outside of storms, winds will be E/SE around 10 kts, with a brief westerly Gulf breeze at APF after 18Z. Brief flight restrictions will be possible in/near thunderstorms today in the form of lower ceilings and visibilities. && .MARINE... Issued at 227 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 A gentle to moderate east to southeasterly wind flow will continue across the local waters through the rest of the weekend and into early this week. These winds will gradually veer and become more southerly by the middle portion of the week. Seas across the Atlantic will remain at 3 feet or less while seas across the Gulf remain at 2 feet or less. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the local waters each day and could result in locally higher winds and seas. && .BEACHES... Issued at 227 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 There will be a moderate risk for rip currents today along the Atlantic beaches as onshore flow persists. The risk will drop lower early in the week as the onshore flow weakens. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 87 78 88 78 / 60 50 60 30 West Kendall 89 76 90 76 / 70 50 60 30 Opa-Locka 89 78 90 77 / 60 50 60 30 Homestead 87 77 88 77 / 70 50 70 40 Fort Lauderdale 86 78 87 78 / 60 50 60 30 N Ft Lauderdale 87 78 88 78 / 60 50 60 30 Pembroke Pines 89 78 91 79 / 60 50 60 30 West Palm Beach 87 76 89 76 / 60 50 60 20 Boca Raton 88 78 90 77 / 60 50 60 30 Naples 89 76 90 77 / 70 60 70 40 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Culver LONG TERM....Culver AVIATION...CMF